Nytt

Al Qaida og Laskhar el-Taiba skal ha gjennomført Mumbai-terroren for å skape konflikt mellom Pakistan og India, slik at trykket på grenseområdene letter. Slik teoretiserer sikkerhetseksperter.

Tanken kan ha noe for seg. USA har innledet et samarbeid med India. Atomavtalen var historisk og India seiler opp som foretrukket partner. Pakistans eneste kort er kaos og anarki.

Hva gjør Pakistan når det viser seg at det trolig er implisert i Mumbai? Det truer med å trekke hæren ut av stammeområdene, hvis ikke India demper seg. De spiller på det negative, på trusler om å gjøre noe enda verre. Det er den samme utpressing og splitt- og hersk som har ført Pakistan til randen av stupet. Andre skal redde dem fra stupet.

For mye står på spill, ellers ville verden trolig sagt: ok, bare hopp.

Pakistan’s government, meanwhile, has been rallying support in telephone calls to opposition politicians, as well as to officials in China, the United Arab Emirates and the EU.

It has also made it clear that if India again masses troops on the border, Pakistani forces would be diverted away from the tribal areas, allowing militants there to focus on Afghanistan.

«The next 48 hours are critical in determining how things unfold,» a top Pakistani security official told reporters. «We will not leave a single troop on the western border if we are threatened by India.»

Et angrep på India ville utløse spenning og overføring av soldater til grensen mot India. Dermed får jihadistene i pose og sekk. Men hvem vet hvem som har sett fordeler i denne politikken? Pakistans maktkorridorer er ugjennomtrengelige.

«The withdrawal of troops will give a huge space to the militants,» said Hasan Askari Rizvi, a Pakistani defence analyst and former professor at Punjab University.

«The main objective of the militants involved in the Mumbai attack was to destablise the region… They will thrive in the event of war between the two countries [India and Pakistan].»

The two groups were originally founded by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency as deniable proxies to be sent to fight Indian forces in the disputed region of Kashmir. They have been blamed for numerous attacks on Indian targets.

However, Western intelligence agencies have recently perceived a growing nexus between these and other, militant groups such as the Pakistani Taleban and al Qaeda. In June, it was reported that some 300 militant leaders from a number groups including Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad met in the Pakistani garrison city of Rawalpindi.

There they reportedly agreed that while the Kashmir struggle remained important, their primary focus should be the fight against international forces in Afghanistan.

Mumbai attacks ‘were a ploy to wreck Obama plan to isolate al-Qaeda’