USA må gi helhjertet støtte til Irak i 5-10 år hvis landet skal ha sjanse til å lykkes. Skulle USA trekke seg ut, er resultatet borgerkrig og kanskje folkemord, spår en amerikansk tenketank, The U.S. Institute of Peace.
«The U.S. is no closer to being able to leave Iraq than it was a year ago,» it concluded. «Lasting political development could take five to 10 years of full, unconditional U.S. commitment to Iraq.»
The institute’s report warned that a substantial reduction of U.S. troops in Iraq risks «a complete failure of the Iraqi state, massive chaos and even genocide.»
If the Americans opt for a reduced commitment, the report said, they should focus on improving political and economic development.
But an unconditional withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq must be coupled with an increased American military presence in neighboring countries, ready to intervene in case of a major crisis in Iraq, the report said. The U.S. should also redouble efforts to build regional political alliances, it added.