Kinesiske myndigheter forsøker febrilsk å stanse børsfallet, men så langt har ikke tiltakene virket. En økonom ved Nordea/Asia sa inatt til BBC at tiltakene heller synes å ha motsatt virkning.

Stikkordet er tillit eller rettere: mangel på tillit.

Beijing could face social unrest if the sell-off accelerates, since tens of millions of ordinary investors have plowed their savings into the market. The psychological toll on investors, in turn, could erode consumer confidence, dragging down growth in the already slowing economy.

“The stock market is connected to the real economy,” says Fraser Howie, a longtime Asia banker and co-author of “Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China’s Extraordinary Rise.” “When you see such violent moves, you don’t know what kinds of ripples are going to come down.”

Det eneste myndighetene synes å kunne er å pøse milliarder inn i markedene. Så langt har det ikke hjulpet.

The country’s central bank has made extra cash available to fund share purchases. Brokerage houses have been ordered to pump billions of dollars into the market. And government-backed funds have earmarked billions more to prop up the shares of flagging companies.

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Lederne kommer med generelle utsagn om at de vil sørge for stabilitet. Men de mangler konkrete anvisninger på hva de vil gjøre, og de mangler en presse verdig navnet som kan underkaste dem et kritisk blikk. Slik kan en ettpartistat skru seg selv ned. Det er bare selgere, ingen kjøpere. Det er klar melding.

“There are no buyers, only sellers,” said Francis Cheung, a market analyst at CLSA, the brokerage house. “So the government is buying, and they’ll ramp up buying to stabilize the market.”

Så langt har ikke Kina berørt utenlandske børser i nevneverdig grad. Men det er bare et tidsspørsmål.

In Shanghai, prices plunged 5.9 percent. In Shenzhen, they fell 2.5 percent. The damage is also spreading regionally, to Hong Kong and Japan, where shares also fell sharply.

Boble

Kina har opplevd en aksjeboble. Bare siden januar har Shanhai-børsen steget fra 3250 til 5.166 12 juni. Selv med et fall på 30-40 prosent er den ennå på plussiden. Det er ekstrem stigning. Oppturen kom med lånte penger. Når kursene faller brer derfor panikken seg. Folk frykter å sitte igjen med bare gjeld.

Myndighetene har bevisst lagt opp til spekulasjon, ved å låne ut penger til meklerhusene.

The stock market is far bigger than it has ever been, second in size only to that of the United States.

And aggressive investors, many of them first-time buyers of equities, have been playing a different game. They were buying stocks with borrowed funds, using leverage as if they were “barbarians at the gate.”

The panic, in part, is being driven by concerns about the huge amount of borrowing. Some analysts estimated that margin buying reached about $550 billion, or as much as 15 percent of the value of all tradable shares on the two major exchanges.

Fear is gripping the market after a phenomenal bull run in which mainland China’s major stock indexes doubled, tripled and even quintupled over the past few years. By the time the market peaked, in early June, share prices in China were among the most expensive in the world, vastly costlier than in the United States, Europe or Hong Kong.

I en ettpartistat skjer ikke slike oppturer uten at myndighetene vil det. Så sent som i april skrev Folkets Dagblad at børsrallyet bare såvidt var begynt. Folk gikk bananas. En så bratt stigning bærer på omslaget og panikken.

Nå forsøker regimet å redde systemet, og det vil si de store statlige selskapene. Ledelsen er bedt om å kjøpe egne aksjer, og det er sendt beskjed om at reglene mot innsidehandel ikke gjelder. Slik reagerer et korrupt regime som er en ettpartistat.

Derfor tror ikke vanlige investorer på tiltakene som settes inn. De tror ikke systemet har deres beste for øye.

China’s major exchanges remain up about 75 percent from a year ago, in part because big state-owned companies have fared better.

Kinas eksperimentering med kapitalisme har en nedside som er enda større enn den frie kapitalismen.

Some analysts have noted that the price-to-earnings ratio of companies listed on China’s start-up index, called ChiNext, were far higher than those listed on the Nasdaq stock market in 2000, when the Internet bubble burst.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/09/business/international/stock-sell-off-unabated-in-china.html?emc=edit_th_20150709&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=30317720&_r=0

 

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