Pengefondets analyseavdeling har skrevet en vurdering av gresk økonomi som konkluderer med at Hellas aldri vil kunne reise seg uten massiv nedskriving av gjelden.

Rapporten var ikke ment for offentliggjøring, i det minste ikke før folkeavstemningen, men er blitt lekket av Guardian og Süddeutsche Zeitung. Den kan forandre utfallet av avstemningen.

Rapporten er en rettferdiggjøring av Hellas posisjon. Grekerne har hele tiden hevdet at sparekuren er ved å sakte drepe dem. Nå gir IMF dem rett.

Without a major effort to write off €330bn in loans, the battered economy will remain a financial black-hole for its creditors, locked out of financial markets and ever-reliant on its paymasters to stop it from going bust.

Gresk økonomi vil være et sort hull i mange tiår fremover og vil kreve stadig nye støttepakker. Landet vil synke dypere og dypere ned i gjeld. Hvilket folk stemmer ja til en slik fremtid?

The message is crystal clear: Greece will never prosper until it is unburdened from a huge portion of its crippling debt weight.

It is an issue that is at the heart of the division between Greece and its creditors, and has caused internecine in-fighting among its paymasters.

The IMF’s intervention was a remarkable public admission that more debt and more austerity will lead Greece to the path of economic ruin.

Its findings «blew apart any notion that [the IMF] and the eurozone shared the same standpoint on debt,» says Gabriel Sterne of Oxford Economics.

Rapporten kommer svært ubeleilig for EU og Berlin/Brussel. Tyskland har kjørt knallhardt på at all gjeld må tilbakebetales og spareprogrammene fortsette. Nå sier en av troikaens egne medlemmer at det er galskap. Ikke rart leder av eurogruppen, nederlenderen Jeroen Dijsselbloem, var sur.

Gjeldslette har vært utelukket under forhandlingene med Hellas. Nå sier IMF at det er det eneste som nytter.

Restructuring is still the taboo that dare not speak its name in the eurozone.

Rapporten røper en uenighet innad i troikaen og innad i IMF som må få følger. Det finnes ikke noe samsvar mellom analyseavdelingen og ledelsen. IMF-sjef Christine Lagarde gjentok at Hellas må tilbakebetale hver krone det skylder.

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Tidligere har Hellas stått nokså alene med sin analyse. Nå gir IMFs egen analyseavdeling dem rett.

Men innrømmelsen kommer fem år for sent.

It is a welcome rallying cry for the embattled Leftist government, despite coming «five years too late for Greece», says Gabriel Sterne of Oxford Economics.

«In coming out firmly in favour of debt relief, the IMF have finally asserted an independent and balanced voice,» he says.

Betyr det at troikaen har kjørt en knallhard kurs mot Hellas som de hele tiden har visst kom til å drepe pasienten?

Former IMF bail-out chief Ashoka Mody said the analysis further exposed that lenders had not been «negotiating in good faith» with Greece by refusing to countenance debt relief over the last five months. Mr Mody supports a bolder programme of debt forgiveness which would wipe out 50pc of Greece’s liabilities.

A pedestrian looks at a poster depicting German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble and reading "5 years he drinks your blood, tell him NO", ahead of a controversial bailout referendum, on July  2, 2015. The Greek government led by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is fiercely campaigning for a 'No' vote, believing rejecting the bailout conditions would strengthen its hand in negotiations with creditors. Greece's radical left government suggested it would resign if it fails to get its way in a make-or-break referendum on July 5 that could decide the country's financial future.. AFP PHOTO/ Louisa GouliamakiLOUISA GOULIAMAKI/AFP/Getty Images

A pedestrian looks at a poster depicting German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble and reading «5 years he drinks your blood, tell him NO», ahead of a controversial bailout referendum, on July 2, 2015. The Greek government led by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is fiercely campaigning for a ‘No’ vote, believing rejecting the bailout conditions would strengthen its hand in negotiations with creditors. Greece’s radical left government suggested it would resign if it fails to get its way in a make-or-break referendum on July 5 that could decide the country’s financial future.

Den greske finansministeren Ianis Varoufakis var ikke sen om å utnytte rapporten:

«Never before has a veritable institution advocated policies that clashed so mercilessly with its own research,» wrote Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis following the IMF’s debt analysis.

Det ubehagelige for troikaen er at selv dens egne går ut og kritiserer politikken som er ført.

Former IMF bail-out chief Ashoka Mody said the analysis further exposed that lenders had not been «negotiating in good faith» with Greece by refusing to countenance debt relief over the last five months. Mr Mody supports a bolder programme of debt forgiveness which would wipe out 50pc of Greece’s liabilities.

..

«The IMF is the only institution involved in Greece that has not provided any debt relief to date» says Guntram Wolff, director of the Bruegel think-tank.

«The mismatch between action and rhetoric is the biggest on the Fund’s side. The IMF’s negotiating stance shows they are not willing to concede anything to the Greeks,” says Mr Wolff.

Rapporten kan tippe flertallet mot et nei. EU har forsøkt å fremstille Syriza-regjeringen som uansvarlig, men rapporten forteller noe annet. Enten må troikaen komme opp med massiv gjeldslette, eller Hellas må ut av euroen.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11713794/Greece-IMF-debt-restructuring-eurozone.html

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