Nytt

Det er ikke helt lett å forstå hva Angela Merkel håper å oppnå med å besøke Athen. Mange grekere oppfatter besøket som en provokasjon. I går fikk de høre at troikaen har gitt Hellas ti dager på seg til å omsette løfter til praksis.

EU har utsatt utbetalingen av 31 milliarder euro siden juni. Fremdeles er ikke pengene utbetalt. Troikaen – Pengefondet, EU-kommisjonen og Sentralbanken – vil se kutt og vedtak. Hvor sannsynlig er det at ting vil skje i et slikt tempo, i en slik situasjon? Kan en slik drastisk omstilling gjøre mer skade enn gavn i den rådende situasjon?

«We stressed that before the next disbursement Greece clearly and credibly should demonstrate its commitment to fully implement the programme … by the 18 October at the latest,» said Jean-Claude Juncker, chair of the eurozone finance ministers, on Monday (8 October).

He noted that most of the 89 «prior actions» – a list of budget cuts, privatisations, labour market and tax reforms agreed in March – had been agreed upon within the three-party coalition in Athens, but that no money could flow before everything is implemented.

The €31.5 billion tranche of bailout money has been delayed since June, awaiting a report by experts from the «troika» of international lenders – the EUuropean Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) – who are still in Athens trying to figure out how to plug the widening gap in Greek finances.

Pengefondet advarer om ytterligere forverring i EU og er redd for at den sosiale freden kan bryte sammen:

In a separate report issued Monday, the IMF warned of a possible worsening of the euro-crisis amid «rising social tensions and adjustment fatigue» in the «periphery» – meaning countries such as Greece, Portugal and Spain where anti-austerity protests have intensified in recent weeks.

Rappporten er skrevet av sjeføkonom Olivier Blanchard. Han advarer EU; hvis man ikke får på plass bankunionen snart vil den finansielle og økonomiske fragmentering tilta.

The Washington-based institute outlined the fears in its World Economic Outlook report out on Monday (8 October).

Its chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, wrote an upbeat preamble to the 229-page survey, saying «there has been a clear change in attitudes» in Europe and that «one can reasonably hope that the worst might be behind us.»

But the study said that if EU anti-crisis measures, such as the banking union, are not put in place right away «the forces of financial fragmentation [will] increase and become entrenched, capital holes in banking systems [will] expand and the intra-euro-area capital account crisis [will] spill outward … [with] deleterious consequences for the rest of the world.»

Blanchard sier at landene må gå sammen i et en-for-alle-alle-for-en-system, slik at gjelden i ett land dekkes av land med overskudd. Det er en type fordelingspolitikk som sitter svært langt inn i land som Tyskland. Det vil bryte med den økonomiske suvereniteten, og bety at EU blir en politisk og økonomisk union. I dagens krise er det politisk umulig. Men det er det IMF sier er det eneste som kan redde Europa.

The IMF’s vision of an EU banking union tallies with recent European Commission proposals to create a single EU bank supervisor.

But it said the scheme must go further to stop European savers and investors from stashing their money in safe havens and to stop failing banks from dragging down their home countries.

«Banking union also requires a pan-European deposit insurance guarantee programme and a bank resolution mechanism with common backstops,» the report noted.

It added that the two measures are «critical, and proposals for them still need to be spelled out.»

Going back to his preamble, Blanchard noted that the move would amount to «a system of transfers» from rich eurozone countries to poor ones.

Hvis ikke en bankunion kommer på plass som gjenreiser tilliten, kan økonomiene i Italia og Spania komme til å falle med 7 % neste år, spår IMF:

But if EU reforms go badly, it said that even Germany will see its GDP shrink, while Italy and Spain will see up to 7 percent of their economies go up in smoke, instead of between 1.5 percent to 2.3 percent.

http://euobserver.com/economic/117787