Obama-administrasjonen har fjernet Iran og Hizbollah fra den årlige globale trusselvurderingen. Dette tolkes som nok et tegn på at Obama søker en deal med Iran, ikke bare om atomvåpen, men som innebærer en anerkjennelse av Irans regionale rolle.
The unclassified version of the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Communities, dated February 26, 2015 (PDF), noted Iran’s efforts to combat Sunni extremists, including those of the ultra-radical Islamic State group, who were perceived to constitute the preeminent terrorist threat to American interests worldwide.
Rapporten roser først Iran, men sier dets handlinger har en del sekundære negative konsekvenser. Særlig innen sikkerhetsapparatet er det krefter som drar i sekterisk retning.
“Iran’s actions to protect and empower Shia communities are fueling growing fears and sectarian responses,” it said.
Rapporten slår fast at Iran kan bygge en atombombe, hvis det er hva regimet ønsker.
The report said that it was unclear whether or not Iran would eventually decide to build nuclear weapons, but noted that should the Iranian government decide to pursue such a course, it would face no “insurmountable technical barriers to producing a nuclear weapon.” It lingered on Iran’s pursuit of intercontinental ballistic missile technology as a likely delivery system for a nuclear weapon, and delineated Iranian threats in the realms of counterintelligence and cyber warfare.
En israelsk tenketank tror kursendringen skyldes at USA ønsker en atomavtale i Geneve og ellers ønsker at Iran skal gjøre grovarbeidet på bakken mot IS.
“We believe that this results from a combination of diplomatic interests (the United States’ talks with Iran about a nuclear deal) with the idea that Iran could assist in the battle against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq and maybe even in the battle against jihadist terrorism in other countries,” the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center said in an analysis of the report (Hebrew PDF). It also noted the Iran and Hezbollah were both listed as terrorism threats in the assessment of another American body, the Defense Intelligence Agency.