Nytt

En analyse av underlagsmaterialet for den siste folketellingen i USA, viser at befolkningen vil øke med 127 millioner innen 2050, og 75 % av økningen vil være innvandring.

  • If net immigration (difference between those coming and going) unfolds as the Census Bureau estimated in the last set of projections, the nation’s population will increase from 309 million in 2010 to 436 million in 2050 — a 127 million (41 percent) increase.
  • The projected increase of 127 million is larger than the combined populations of the U.K. and France.
  • By itself future immigration will account for 96 million (75 percent) of future population growth.
  • The immigrant (legal and illegal) share of the population will reach one in six U.S. residents by 2030, a new record, and nearly one in five residents by 2050.
  • The Center for Immigration Studies, as well as other researchers, has found that immigration levels have fallen somewhat in recent years. While there is no way to know if the level will remain lower, this change can be incorporated into these projections:

Det er en dramatisk endring på kort tid, og Center for Immigration Studies spør om det er politisk ønskelig med en så rask økning. Vil det heve eller senke livskvaliteten at landet blir stå tett befolket?

The fundamental question for the American public and policy makers is whether a much larger population and the resulting greater population density will add to or diminish the quality of life in the United States. Immigration is a discretionary policy of the government and can be changed. These projections show us one possible future. We must decide as a country if this is the future we want.

Amerikanere tør å stille spørsmålet og tydeliggjør at dette er et politisk valg. I Europa fremstilles innvandring mer som et naturfenomen, eller som en forpliktelse til å oppfylle rettigheter som er blitt globale. Det gjør at innvandringen blir hevet over diskusjon. Man kan diskutere former, men ikke selve innvandringen.

Derfor ble Brochmann-utvalgets konklusjoner kritisert, for utvalget våget å se på konsekvensene for velferdssamfunnet, hvis man fremskriver visse trekk ved dagens innvandring. Det er politisk meget følsomt. I USA foregår denne diskusjonen åpent.

Blant annet viser studien til Center for Immigration at det ikke har noen stor betydning for størrelsen på den arbeidsproduktive andelen av befolkningen om innvandringen blir høy eller liten. Innvandring utsetter heller ikke eldrebølgen som vil ramme USA. Også innvandrere blir gamle.

Consistent with prior research, the projections show immigration only slightly increases the working-age (18 to 65) share of the population. Assuming the Census Bureau’s immigration level, 58 percent of the population will be of working-age in 2050, compared to 57 percent if there is no immigration.

Raising the retirement age by one year would have a larger positive impact on the working-age share over the next 40 years then would the Census Bureau’s projected level of net immigration (68 million).

While immigrants tend to arrive relatively young and have higher fertility than natives, immigrants age just like everyone else, and the differences with natives are not large enough to fundamentally increase the share of the population who are potential workers.

Befolkningsendring har avgjørende betydning for samfunnets utvikling. At det er politisk følsomt å diskutere disse spørsmålene, er ikke et tegn på selvtillit.

http://www.newenglishreview.org/blog_display.cfm/blog_id/45191

The complete study can be found at: http://cis.org/projecting-immigrations-impact-on-the-size-and-age-structure-of-the-21st-century-american-population.