Nytt

Det heter at Europas befolkning vil synke pga lave fødselstall. Nå viser nye tall at det ikke vil skje. Befolkningen vil stige, selv i et land som Italia hvor fertiliteten er 1,4 vil befolkningen forbli på dagens nivå. Grunnen er innvandring fra ikke-vestlige land. Det er scenarier som vekker svært blandede følelser blant europeere, særlig innvandringen av muslimer.

Det er Adrian Michaels i Daily Telegraph som ser på debatten som bare venter på å bli tatt i sin fulle bredde: En demografisk tidsinnstilt bombe, kaller han artikkelen.

Noe av problemet med statistikk er at det er politisk meget følsomt å lage registrering av innvandring basert på religion. EU-landene ønsker ikke slike data. Men folk ser byene forandre seg. I lengden nytter det ikke å legge lokk på debatten.

Man vil nå se hele utviklingen i perspektiv: når begynte den voldsomme innvandringen, og hvorfor? Hvem bestemte, hvorfor ble ikke folk forelagt saken til vurdering ved valg?

Only 3.2 per cent of Spain’s population was foreign-born in 1998. In 2007 it was 13.4 per cent. Europe’s Muslim population has more than doubled in the past 30 years and will have doubled again by 2015. In Brussels, the top seven baby boys’ names recently were Mohamed, Adam, Rayan, Ayoub, Mehdi, Amine and Hamza.

En opplest og vedtatt sannhet er at Europa har strammet inn på innvandringen, slik at den har gått ned. Dette er en myte. De siste årene har innvandringen tredoblet seg.

EU numbers on general immigration tell a story on their own. In the latter years of the 20th century, the 27 countries of the EU attracted half a million more people a year than left. «Since 2002, however,» the latest EU report says, «net migration into the EU has roughly tripled to between 1.6 million and two million people per year.»
The increased pace has made a nonsense of previous forecasts.

In 2004 the EU thought its population would decline by 16 million by 2050. Now it thinks it will increase by 10 million by 2060. Britain is expected to become the most populous EU country by 2060, with 77 million inhabitants. Right now it has 20 million fewer people than Germany. Italy’s population was expected to fall precipitously; now it is predicted to stay flat.

Store forskjeller – store spenninger

Tilstrømmingen til Europa har økt, og det er fjernkulturelle som står for størst andel. Det er heller ikke til å stikke under en stol at muslimsk tro og kultur skaper størst spenninger, rapporterer amerikanske Pew Forum on Religon and Public Life og viser til konflikter i historien og et spenningsfylt forhold til modernitet og moderne samfunn.

The countries of the EU have long histories of welcoming migrants, but in recent years two significant trends have emerged. Migrants have come increasingly from outside developed economies, and they have come in accelerating numbers.

The growing Muslim population is of particular interest. This is not because Muslims are the only immigrants coming into the EU in large numbers; there are plenty of entrants from all points of the compass. But Muslims represent a particular set of issues beyond the fact that atrocities have been committed in the West in the name of Islam.

America’s Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, part of the non-partisan Pew Research Center, said in a report: «These [EU] countries possess deep historical, cultural, religious and linguistic traditions. Injecting hundreds of thousands, and in some cases millions, of people who look, speak and act differently into these settings often makes for a difficult social fit.»

How dramatic are the population changes? Everyone is aware that certain neighbourhoods of certain cities in Europe are becoming more Muslim, and that the change is gathering pace. But raw details are hard to come by as the data is sensitive: many countries in the EU do not collect population statistics by religion.

Demografi er et tema som er vanskelig å bortforklare. Det er rene fakta. Ikke rart politikerne unngår disse dataene. Men nå trenger de seg på.

According to the US’s Migration Policy Institute, residents of Muslim faith will account for more than 20 per cent of the EU population by 2050 but already do so in a number of cities. Whites will be in a minority in Birmingham by 2026, says Christopher Caldwell, an American journalist, and even sooner in Leicester. Another forecast holds that Muslims could outnumber non-Muslims in France and perhaps in all of western Europe by mid-century. Austria was 90 per cent Catholic in the 20th century but Islam could be the majority religion among Austrians aged under 15 by 2050, says Mr Caldwell.
Projected growth rates are a disputed area. Birth rates can be difficult to predict and migrant numbers can ebb and flow. But Karoly Lorant, a Hungarian economist who wrote a paper for the European Parliament, calculates that Muslims already make up 25 per cent of the population in Marseilles and Rotterdam, 20 per cent in Malmo, 15 per cent in Brussels and Birmingham and 10 per cent in London, Paris and Copenhagen.

Hvordan takler de sosiale og politiske elitene disse endringene og tempoet de skjer med? Svært dårlig, mener Pews Forum.

The Pew Forum identified the mainstream silence in 2005: «The fact that [extreme parties] have risen to prominence at all speaks poorly about the state and quality of the immigration debate. [Scholars] have argued that European elites have yet to fully grapple with the broader issues of race and identity surrounding Muslims and other groups for fear of being seen as politically incorrect.»

The starting point should be greater discussion of integration. Does it matter at all? Yes, claims Mr Vignon at the European Commission. Without it, polarisation and ghettoes can result. «It’s bad because it creates antagonism. It antagonises poor people against other poor people: people with low educational attainment feel threatened,» he says.

Det multikulturelle og det humanitære sporet har fortrengt en seriøs debatt om samfunnets fremtid. Nylig har man hilst velkommen meldinger om at unge muslimer ikke er blitt radikalisert i samme grad som fryktet. Men denne oppfatningen skygger for det like alvorlige: at annen og tredje generasjon danner sin egen identiet, der islam går foran nasjonal lojalitet.

Nonetheless, second and third generations of Muslims show signs of being harder to integrate than their parents. Policy Exchange, a British study group, found that more than 70 per cent of Muslims over 55 felt that they had as much in common with non-Muslims as Muslims. But this fell to 62 per cent of 16-24 year-olds.

Hvordan vil en mye høyere andel muslimer slå ut på politikken i samfunnet? Foreløpig har ikke muslimer organisert seg i partier, men deres stemmeantall tilsier at partiene vil og må ta hensyn til deres synspunkt. Vil Tyskland kunne fastholde sin motstand mot tyrkisk EU-medlemskap?

USA følger utviklingen nøye. Hvordan vil en stigende muslimsk befolkning påvirke EU og landenes utenrikspolitikk?

Hvordan vil dette feks. påvirke EUs forhold til Israel?

Muslim Europe: the demographic time bomb transforming our continent
The EU is facing an era of vast social change, reports Adrian Michaels, and few politicians are taking notice