Ved å legge fire meningsmålinger i den arabiske verden til grunn har man kommet til at IS har minimum 8 millioner sterke sympatisører. Gjør man definisjonen noe videre og snakker om sympati er antallet 42 millioner. Minst.
An analysis of four polls surveying Arab public opinion towards the Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL) reveals that the group has a bare minimum of 8.5 million strong supporters and that’s a conservative estimate. If you include those who feel somewhat positively towards the Islamic State, the number rises to at least 42 million.
The estimate is based on a March 2015 poll by the Iraq-based Independent Institute for Administration and Civil Society Studies; aNovember 2014 poll by Zogby Research Services; another November 2014 poll by the Doha-based Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies and an October 2014 poll by the Fikra Forum commissioned by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Selv blant syriske flyktninger finner man ganske mange som er positive til IS.
The November 2014 poll interviewed 900 Syrian refugees in Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey and found that 4% are positive towards the Islamic State and another 9% are somewhat positive. This should raise serious concerns for countries that are accepting refugees from the civil war.
Et annet sjokkerende tall: Rundt 20 % av palestinerne har en viss sympati for IS og 4 % er positive. Er det ønsket om å ødelegge Israel som appellerer?
About 4% of Palestinians view the Islamic State positively but a shocking 20% feel the Islamic State is positive to some extent. This is the highest level of positivity towards the Islamic State in theNovember 2014 poll (which does not include Syria).
Tunisia scorer høyest og er også det landet som har sendt flest krigere til Syria: 3.000.
The November 2014 poll found that Tunisia has the highest percentage of people who are view the Islamic State positively (7%). Another 6% view it somewhat positively. The finding is substantiated by assessments determining that Tunisia is the biggest source of foreign fighters for the Islamic State.
The country’s population of 10,937,000 would include 765,590 people who are unequivocally supportive of the Islamic State; a number that grows to 1,421,810 if you include those who are somewhat positive.
Det lyder ikke så høyt, men med en oppslutning på 5-7 % har IS stort rekrutteringsgrunnlag og stort manøvreringsrom. Det skyldes at de benytter vold og terror. Politisk vold skremmer flertallet til passivitet, slik får de ekstreme større makt.
Det var slik bolsjevikene grep makten i Russland. De var også en minoritet, men hadde handlekraft og aktivister som var villige til å ofre seg. Det samme har IS.
If we use the most optimistic of the polls for each of the 11 Arab states, we come to an estimate of 8,523,803 supporters of the Islamic State and an average of 5.8% support in the Arab world. If we extend that average to the other 11 Arab countries with a total population of 370 million, you get a result of 21,460,000 strong supporters of the Islamic State in the Arab world overall.
If we include the most pessimistic polls and include those who view the Islamic State somewhat positively, the result is 24,454,228 Arabs who view the Islamic State at least somewhat positively. If the average of 11.5% is consistent across the entire Arab world, then up to 42,550,000 Arabs view the Islamic State at least somewhat positively.
This second number is also in line with the November 2014 survey’s conclusion that an additional 7% are somewhat supportive of the Islamic State for a total statistic of 11%.