Den kjente atomeksperten Gary Milhollin sier det bare er et spørsmål om måneder før Iran er en atommakt. Landet har allerede sentrifugert frem så mye anriket uran at det med letthet kan anrike det høyt nok til å lage en bombe.

Han baserer seg på hva iranske myndigheter selv sier om fremdriften av atomprogrammet, som de hevder er til fredelig formål, og IAEAs anslag.

By the time we inaugurate our next president, Iran is likely to achieve «virtual» nuclear weapon status. This means that it will be able to produce, within a few months of deciding to do so, enough weapons-grade uranium to fuel a bomb.
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Since last December, Iran has been feeding uranium into its bank of rapidly spinning centrifuges at an increasing clip. Out has come a growing stockpile of what scientists call «low-enriched» uranium, which is ideal for fueling a reactor. However, if you re-circulate this material through the centrifuges, it becomes highly enriched bomb fuel. By Aug. 30, according to the atomic agency’s Sept. 15 report, Iran’s stockpile had reached 1,060 pounds of low-enriched uranium hexafluoride, and it was producing a little more than 100 pounds a month.

At this rate, Iran will have produced at least 1,500 pounds by mid-January. Re-circulated, this could produce 35 pounds of weapon-grade uranium, enough for a bomb. (In fact, this was about the amount called for in the implosion device that Saddam Hussein’s scientists were trying to perfect in the 1980s; according to intelligence sources, the Iraqi design has circulated on the nuclear black market and could well be in Iranian hands.) It would take about two to three months to raise the enrichment level to weapons-grade – meaning Iran could potentially present the world with a bomb by Easter.

Det er spekulert i at Israel vil slå til mot Irans anlegg i tiden mellom presidentvalget i USA og innsettelsen av en ny president i januar. Israel har nylig mottatt et avansert anlegg for stansing av innkommende raketter. Det utstasjoneres i Negev-ørkenen og betjenes av amerikanere.

An arms race we’re sure to lose