Nytt

Borgerkrigen i Jemen får liten oppmerksomhet, men den rommer de samme elementene som gjorde borgerkrigen i Syria så morderisk og sekterisk. Det er shiaer mot sunnier og stormakter på begge sider.

Saudi-Arabia har bombet Jemen i flere måneder. På et eller annet tidspunkt kan Iran komme til å engasjere seg sterkere. Hvis avtalen med USA går gjennom kan det øke sjansene for iransk engasjement.

Ivor Jones oppsummerer i the Spectator:

 

 the Yemeni people are entrenched in a war that is becoming every bit as intricate and disastrous as the conflict currently raging in Syria, with very similar players in the game, a harshening humanitarian crisis and little prospect of it ending anytime soon.

Den humanitære krisen er ved å bli stor og akutt. Saudi-arabiske fly har bombet vannreservoarer i et land som allerede led av vannmangel.

As a result, it is thought that around 20 million people are struggling to find any drinking water. Disease is spreading rapidly because the population is being forced to use dirty water, and the UN has warned that lack of water could soon lead to famine.

Det kan bli vanskelig å neglisjere Jemen hvis noe ikke gjøres. 20 millioner trenger humanitær hjelp.

According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, nearly 1.3 million people are now internally displaced and over 20 million people – or four in every five inhabitants – are considered to be in need of humanitarian assistance. That’s up from 7 million two years ago.

Men som vi så i Syria: Når konflikten blir grusom og dødelig nok er det ingenting som biter på partene. Menneskelig lidelse gjør ikke inntrykk. Foreløpig antas det at 3.800 er drept, en brøkdel av Syrias 290.000. Men betingelsene er til stede for at tallene kan bli helt andre. Paradoksalt nok kan avtalen USA-Iran gjøre en eskalering både mulig og sannsynlig.

The Houthis themselves are not alone either; they have the support of those in the security forces who back Hadi’s predecessor, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who belongs to the same Zaidiyyah sect of Shia Islam as them. Importantly they also appear to have the support of Shia-led Iran, which as yet has not become too involved in the conflict. However, the Saudi-led coalition fears that Iran’s nuclear deal will free up resources to help prop up the Houthis. As a result, they have begun to step up their efforts, pre-empting greater intervention by Iran. The war could be about to escalate drastically.