Nytt

Tidligere Midtøsten-utsending under Clinton, Dennis Ross, gjør det klinkende klart at Egypt må velge mellom ideologi og interesser. Men det finnes en annen mulighet – som springer ut av en forventning om at islamist-styret vil vise at det står for noe annet enn Mubarak. Det kan tvinge Mohamed Morsi til å handle, stikk i strid med Egypts økonomiske interesser.

Slik fungerer politikk, og spesielt i Midtøsten.

Det blir en slags pragmatisme basert på islamistiske premisser. Morsi kan vise til at han må innfri forventningene og USA og verdenssamfunnet kan bli tvunget til å erkjenne at Morsi og hans styre må gi noe til opinionen og det nye demokratiet. At dette ikke er et demokrati i vanlig betydning, er ikke lett å forholde seg til, når Vesten har stilt seg positiv til dets oppståen.

Under forrige Gaza-krig årsskiftet 2008/2009 satt Hosni Mubarak på gjerdet og lot Israel gjøre jobben. Egypt holdt grensen stengt og gjorde hjelpearbeidet vanskelig. Dette skapte stor bitterhet på palestinsk side og blant deres støttespillere.

Det er sterke forventninger om at Morsi og Brorskapet opptrer annerledes. Kravet kommer både fra salafistene og fra Morsis eget Brorskap.

But Morsi also faces a need to maintain credibility on the part of his fledging government, widely seen as a test case in what many Arabs hope will become a broader effort to establish effective Islamist governments to succeed the military-dominated secular governments toppled in the Arab Spring.

“A lot of people will ask, ‘What are the major changes between you and the previous regime?’ ” said Nader Bakkar, a spokesman for the ultraconservative Salafist Nour party.

Morsi’s Islamist credentials have heightened Egyptians’ expectations that their president would stand strong against a deeply unpopular ally, Bakkar said. “People here are very much with the Palestinians, and they want to help them by any means. So it is difficult for him to convince people that these steps are sufficient,” he said.

Morsi har tilbakekalt Egypts ambassadør til Israel, men det er ikke nok, heller ikke for hans egne støttespillere.

But many politicians and activists, including some from the Morsi-allied Muslim Brotherhood, said Thursday that his moves were inadequate.

“What he did was withdraw the Egyptian ambassador and kick out the Israeli ambassador. But what we need is to have all ties cut completely,” said Mahmoud Ghozlan, a high-ranking official in the Muslim Brotherhood, echoing a popular call to annul the countries’ long-standing treaty.

The Brotherhood and other parties called for a nationwide protest outside mosques on Friday to demonstrate Egyptian solidarity with Gaza.

If popular pressure mounts, Morsi could be compelled to reconsider the terms of Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel and provide at least indirect support to Gaza, analysts said.

Men fredsavtalen, Camp David-avtalen fremforhandlet under Jimmy Carter, er en rød linje for Obama. Da havner Egypt på kollisjonskurs med USA.

Mye står på spill. Dennis Rosse tegner et klart bilde:

“While trying to show solidarity with Hamas, the last thing they need or should want is a major conflict in Gaza,” said Dennis Ross, a former senior Middle East adviser to President Obama and President Bill Clinton.

“If they don’t act to get Hamas to stand down, they may end up paying a major price in terms of assistance from the outside,’’ said Ross, who is a counselor at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “So is their ideology going to trump their economic needs?”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/egyptian-delegation-to-visit-besieged-gaza-strip/2012/11/15/d059d6dc-2f4b-11e2-a30e-5ca76eeec857_story_1.html