En av de største isbreene i Antarktis, Pine Island, svinner ti ganger raskere enn den gjorde for bare ti år siden. Det område hvor svinnet er størst, taper seg 16 meter i tykkelse – hvert år.
Siden 1994 har isbreen mistet 90 meter av sin tykkelse. Det er snakk om enorme kvantiter. Det området som nå svinner raskest vil i seg selv øke havnivet med 3 cm. Det er mye. Hvis hele isbreen forsvinner vil havet stige 20-30 cm. Det er katastrofalt.
Farten som isbreen smeltet med for 15 år siden, tilsa at det ville gå 600 år før den var borte. Med dagens fart vil det ta 100 år.
One of the largest glaciers in Antarctica is thinning four times faster than it was 10 years ago, according to research seen by the BBC.
A study of satellite measurements of Pine Island glacier in west Antarctica reveals the surface of the ice is now dropping at a rate of up to 16m a year.
Since 1994, the glacier has lowered by as much as 90m, which has serious implications for sea-level rise.
The work by British scientists appears in Geophysical Research Letters.
The team was led by Professor Duncan Wingham of University College London (UCL).
We’ve known that it’s been out of balance for some time, but nothing in the natural world is lost at an accelerating exponential rate like this glacier
Andrew Shepherd, Leeds University
Calculations based on the rate of melting 15 years ago had suggested the glacier would last for 600 years. But the new data points to a lifespan for the vast ice stream of only another 100 years.
The rate of loss is fastest in the centre of the glacier and the concern is that if the process continues, the glacier may break up and start to affect the ice sheet further inland.
One of the authors, Professor Andrew Shepherd of Leeds University, said that the melting from the centre of the glacier would add about 3cm to global sea level.
«But the ice trapped behind it is about 20-30cm of sea level rise and as soon as we destabilise or remove the middle of the glacier we don’t know really know what’s going to happen to the ice behind it,» he told BBC News.
David Shukman on plane (BBC)
BBC News visited the Pine Island glacier five years ago
«This is unprecedented in this area of Antarctica. We’ve known that it’s been out of balance for some time, but nothing in the natural world is lost at an accelerating exponential rate like this glacier.»
Pine Island glacier has been the subject of an intense research effort in recent years amid fears that its collapse could lead to a rapid disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet.
Se video her: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8200770.stm