Det synes å være enighet om at terroristene bak de tre bilbombene er amatører, men at de like fullt er dødsens farlige. At de er amatører gjør dem vanskeligere å avsløre. Det betyr også at de har lokal tilknytning.
Jason Burke ser på flere karakteristika ved angrepene. Også han fester seg ved amatørskapet.
3. The bombs are amateurish.
We are a long way from the technologically advanced devices and the painstaking preparation work of 9/11, the 1998 bombings of US embassies in east Africa, or even the 7 July attacks on London. This is good news, in that it means Islamic militants are short on expertise and find running sophisticated operations very difficult, not least due to public vigilance and the work of the security services. But it is bad news in that it means that the threat is coming from the people who are hardest to stop: ordinary citizens angry or disturbed enough to become radicalised. Terrorist organisations can have a highly trained, structured, disciplined body of very competent militants or a diffuse network of less skilled and less disciplined individuals, but not usually both. The former is more effective, the latter more resistant.
En kan lese mange elementer inn i de tre angrepene. De låner inspirasjon fra flere kanter: det er en dose Irak, lokal radikalisme, sannsynligvis en forbindelse til Pakistan og treningsleire der, og utstrakt bruk av internett til ideologisk inspirasjon, kunnskaper og kontakter.
In London, counterterrorism experts suggested that whoever abandoned the two explosives-laden Mercedes last Friday might have been what a senior official called «less directed from Al Qaeda and more a matter of a homegrown group,» although their plan seemed to be modeled on terrorist attacks in Iraq.
Several experts and officials said the technology behind the London car bombs seemed amateurish. While the attackers apparently tried to detonate the bombs using cellphones, «they didn’t go off because there were not top-grade people putting them together,» one official said.
If the plot turns out to be the work of a small, unknown cell, that could raise alarms that Britain’s terrorism threat is broader than the 2,000 suspected radicals known to the authorities.
Sajjan Gohel, a security expert, said the police were pursuing a theory that the two car bombs in London had been designed to explode one after the other – the first to bring people into the street and the second to cause great loss of life. The fact that Thursday night at the Tiger Tiger nightclub, in front of which one of the cars was parked, was ladies’ night, he said, recalled a conspiracy in 2004 in which British-born bombers said they wanted to attack women at a nightclub, whom they viewed as promiscuous, in conversations monitored by British intelligence.