Guardians Nick Paton Walsh er dyktig. Han har vært i Dagestan, et område det er smått med nyheter fra, og kan fortelle at islamismen er voksende, især blant de unge. Grunn: utbredt korrupsjon blant eliten, og unge med «no future». Det er altså ikke bare snakk om fattigdom, men en tilstand hvor økonomi bare er ett element.

Republikkens myndighet og sentralmakten har ikke noe å tilby. Deres svar er det samme som i Tsjetsjenia: menn med svarte masker kommer om natten og henter de unge. Familiene må betale løsepenger for å få dem løslatt, levende eller døde.

Men imperiet har ikke lenger krefter til å holde dette gående. Også undertrykkingen har et grådighetsmotiv.

Norge bør tenke grundig over hvilket det selskap det havner i ved å slå seg sammen med Gazprom og Kreml i nordområdene. Det kan nok være at Kreml vil vite å innkreve den politiske goodwill når tiden er inne.

Sharia innføres i landsbyene rundt om Nord-Kaukasus «by default»: fordi føderale myndigheter ikke har noe å tilby som ligner anstendighet og respekt for borgerne.

The red, white and blue stripes of the Russian flag which flies over the school in Ghimri, a village marooned amid the mountains of Dagestan, is hopelessly outnumbered by the green of another emblem: the crescent and star of Islam.

Inside, Arabic is taught. Outside, women scuttle between the dusty moraines of litter and ramshackle houses, covered eye to ankle. The last time someone was caught drinking they were given 40 lashes. The rule of law is sharia.

Shamil, 18, crouching on a piece of discarded concrete, adjusts his Adidas cap and declares: «I want to take the path to Allah. We have to fight a jihad against the local police and non-believers.» He adds: «We have sharia law here, and it should be stricter. Everything you need is laid down in the Qur’an.»
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The growing autonomy of villages such as Ghimri is a symptom of how exposed Russia is to Islamic fundamentalism on its most southern and impoverished flank. Explosions, blamed on the «international terrorists» behind the Islamic separatist fight in neighbouring Chechnya, target police every other day.

Yet at the same time, across the predominantly Muslim region, a lack of confidence in the corrupt local government has enhanced the role of Islam in small communities. Ghimri is an extreme example: a place seemingly beyond the law where Shamil happily announces jihad against police. His comments are dismissed by some as «bravado». Yet most in Ghimri say sharia law is in force, to varying degrees. The imam says thieves are forced to stand before the mosque at Friday prayers and pledge never to steal again.

En interessant innsikt slår en: Den reform det er behov for i den muslimske verden, antar oftest form av en reaksjon: en tilbakevending til en strengere form. Det er svaret på nye tider og utfordringer. Egentlig en fallitt-erklæring, men hvem skal si det til disse menneskene?

Even the Kremlin, notorious for glossing over problems in the north Caucasus, the region where Dagestan and Chechnya are based, let slip its own fears about the rise of fundamentalism in June. A leaked report written for President Vladimir Putin said local leaders had corruptly en- riched themselves through controlling the economy, police and courts. The report concluded that corruption had «created distrust in the population, which then tries to find an alternative to the authorities. Unfortunately they find it in extremists.»

As if the combustible mixture of intense poverty and corruption were not enough, the catalyst of Islamic militancy has in the past six months brought violence that threatens to engulf the whole north Caucasus. A sharp rise in militant attacks has led Dagestan to resemble war-torn Chechnya. Forty police and an unknown number of soldiers and civilians have died since January, the government says. «There practically already is civil war in Dagestan,» said analyst Alexei Malashenko. «Practically every day [militants] kill people – ministers, policemen. This is a complete crisis.»

Jeg latterliggjorde for kort tid siden Kjell Olaf Jensen for å skrive at Putin setter Kaukausus i brann, og Bush Midtøsten, slik at det blir en sammenhengende brann. Det smakte av hype. Artikler som denne kan være et argument for Jensens spådom. Men la meg anføre en viktig innvendig: Jensen likestilte Putin og Bush, og mente begge er like gale. De fører begge kriger som fremmer terror. DET er en grov forenkling. Der Bush har forsøkt å komme med nye svar på en ny situasjon (og delvis feilet), kjenner Putin bare ett svar: og det finnes intet forsonende ved det.

Artikkelen til Paton Walsh burde få flere til å sperre opp øynene: Kreftbyllen i Tsjetsjenia metastaserer.

As in Chechnya, young men have started disappearing, abducted by masked men, usually the military or police. There are no official figures. Many Dagestanis buy their relative’s release from police custody. But some disappear for good.

Some emerge from custody brutalised, like 43-year-old Omar Alivov, abducted on July 5, who was given electric shocks to make him talk. «They said that, if I did not talk, they’d hand me over to the Russian military in Chechnya who would make me talk,» he said. His wrists were raw and his fingers red from electric burns.

Dagestan edges closer to civil war