Hizbollah og jihadistene i al Nusra-fronten står overfor hverandre på begge sider av Bekaa-dalen, i et område hvor den libanesiske staten ikke har hatt noe å si på mange år. Hvis de to skulle tørne sammen kan det utløse en storkrig.
Da vil Libanon bli involvert, men og også Irak. Konsekvensene er uoverskuelige.
Motstandere av Assad mener at han bevisst forsøker å lokke eller lure Hizbollah inn i krigen. En slik regionalisering av krigen kan være Assads siste håp.
The new situation triggered contrasting responses in Beirut. Supporters of the Syrian opposition were quick to accuse the Syrian regime of having hatched a “conspiracy” to further fuel tensions over Syria. They believe the army’s movement was an attempt by Damascus regime to illustrate that its collapse would cause mayhem in the region. Moreover, the government of Bashar al-Assad regime is trying, allegedly, to lure its Lebanese Shiite ally, Hezbollah, into fully engaging in the Syrian crisis in an attempt to perhaps have Iran and maybe Iraq follow suit. Thus, the Syrian conflict would be transformed into a regional issue, the resolution of which would necessitate more than bilateral negotiations between the regime and the opposition.
The pertinent question, however, is what would the consequences be of a direct confrontation between the jihadists and Hezbollah? Military experts agree that both sides will keep checking the pulse and carefully monitor the situation before launching an attack. A few sporadic skirmishes might erupt between the parties throughout the mountainous strip for a few weeks, until the snow melts in the area. Afterwards, a new war might erupt involving Sunnis, Shiites and Alawites, as was the case of the armed ambush that took place in Iraq in Anbar province. The Syrian crisis is likely to spill over into Iraq.