Nytt

Presset mot Tyskland for å gå på euro-obligasjoner er økende, men den tiltagende krisen gjør sannsynligheten for at tyskerne skal gå med på noe slikt, enda mindre.

Også Tyskland merker motbakken. Den økonomiske veksten avtar. Også Tyskland vil merke hardere tider. Skulle man i en slik situasjon gå med på en gjeldsordning som forplikter en for alle, alle for en?

Tyskland har bygget seg opp sine reserver gjennom omstrukturering og oppofrelse. Dit har gjeldspartnerne i eurosonen ikke kommet. Et tysk offer vil således være bortkastet.

Først må de gjeldstyngede landene omstrukturere, ellers er man like langt. Da havner også Tyskland i den sorte gryte, er resonnementet i Berlin. Tyskland har vært i den gryten før. Det har lært leksen.

But Jennifer McKeown, an economist in London at Capital Economics, wrote in a research note that the data suggested the growing economic weakness was outpacing the response from policy makers.

“A deepening and spreading economic downturn will further reduce the currency union’s chances of survival and looks set to put more downward pressure on the euro exchange rate,” she wrote.

Perhaps even more worryingly, German data released Thursday showed signs of a slowdown in an economy that until now had been a bright spot for the Continent. A Markit index based on surveys of purchasing managers of German manufacturing companies fell to 45.0 in May from 46.2 in April.

A separate report from the Ifo Institute, based on surveys of German companies, showed “greater pessimism about their business outlook,” and noted that the “recent surge in uncertainty in the euro zone is impacting the German economy.”

The German economy minister, Philipp Rösler, drove the point home Thursday in Paris, Reuters reported. “We believe that euro bonds are the wrong tool to stabilize Europe because it would take away the pressure for reform in our partner countries and it would also undermine market discipline,” he said.

European Economic Outlook Dims Amid Leaders’ Impasse