Den kjente franske forskeren Gilles Kepel sier Egypt er bare uker fra økonomisk kollaps, og trenger hjelp fra Golf-statene eller Saudi-Arabia for ikke å gå over ende.

Det var under et seminar i Doha om den arabiske våren at Kepel kom med den dystre spådommen og noen interessante observasjoner om de ulike faser av revolusjonen:

Gulf countries are the only ones able to save Egypt from bankruptcy if the country does not achieve concrete economic and social results. This was said by Gilles Kepel, French political expert on Islam and the Arab world and professor of the Institut d’Etudes politiques de Paris. Egypt will go into default over the next few weeks if Islamists do not bring in economic results, and the country will not be able to pay its debts.

The only ones to provide economic support to Egypt are Gulf countries, and especially Saudi Arabia, Kepel said during the conference »The Arab uprisings, political Islam and democratic transitions’ organized by Brookings Doha center in the Qatari capital. The French political expert put forth the theory of a geographical division of the Arab Spring, in which Egypt is part of Zone A alongside Tunisia and Libya, countries in which the revolutionary phenomenon began and in which change was not seen as a threat. Zone B instead includes Bahrain and Yemen, where change was seen as dangerous and foreign policy – not only domestic issues – played a role. In Yemen, especially, there was the dissolution of the State, according to Kepel. Syria is part of Zone C, being a case unto itself, with sharp internal divisions and external pressures.

The Arab Spring has entered its second year with a fragile democratic transition seemingly led by Islamist political parties, whose success is due to greater organization, rhetoric accessible to all and – in Kepel’s eyes – also by their strong roots within the society. At the outset of the Arab uprisings, Islamists did not have any role, but have now won in many North African countries and must bring in results in economic and social terms, concluded Kepel. (ANSAmed).