Europa er på randen av resesjon, nedsmelting av finanssektoren, minst ett land vil forlate euro innen ett år, og en må regne med sivil uro.
Slike dystre spådommer deler et flertall av investorer, analytikere og tradere som Bloomberg har spurt, over 1.000 i alt.
Forbundsdagen vedtok å øke Tysklands andel av et forhøyet stabilitetsfond, men det gjør ikke inntrykk på markedet.
About three-quarters of those questioned this week said the euro-area economy will fall into recession during the next 12 months and 53 percent said turmoil will worsen in a banking sector laden with government bonds, according to the quarterly Global Poll of 1,031 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers. Forty percent see the 17-nation currency bloc losing at least one member in the next year.
More than a third of participants say deteriorating European debt will derail the world economy over the next year
Det er tilliten det er noe i veien med. Markedet tror ikke på politikerne.
“It’s a bad crisis,” said Jean-Yves Chereau, a poll respondent and chief investment officer at Halkin Investments LLP in London. “Since the resurgence of troubles in Greece, you suddenly have a crisis of confidence and trust and that’s impacting markets and could hurt economies. Politicians need to move ahead pretty quickly.”
Denne pessimismen rimer dårlig med Barrosos optimistiske forslag om en skatt på finanstransaksjoner. Credit Suisse sier idag at de ikke tror det blir noe av.
Tør man ta risikoen på en slik skatt på randen av en resesjon?
Fewer than one-fifth of those polled said the EU’s market offers the best investment opportunity over the next year, about half the number that cited the U.S. Fifty- three percent identified the EU as offering investors the worst opportunities during the next year.
Fifty-six percent said they will reduce their exposure to the euro in the next six months and even one in three inside the region plan to. Half of all investors said they expect the Euro Stoxx 50 index to fall.
Eighty-eight percent of those surveyed by Bloomberg said the region’s economy is deteriorating. Almost half of Asian respondents said they expected Europe’s pain to spark a worldwide economic meltdown within the next year, compared with 34 percent in the U.S. and Europe.
“If the euro crisis continues to fester or become more dangerous, the cumulative effect of declining economic confidence and harsh austerity measures will tip the peripherals into certain recession,” said Akber Naqvi, a poll respondent and executive director at Al Masah Capital Ltd. in Dubai. “The ensuing chaos and banking crisis will almost certainly tip the whole region into a recession.”