Den palestinske presidenten, Mahmoud Abbas, kommer til Oslo mandag, for å møte utenriksminister Jonas Gahr Støre og hans team, samt Stortingets utenriks- og forsvarskomite.

Tiden for at palestinerne innleverer søknaden om anerkjennelse av en palestinsk stat i FN, nærmer seg. Hvordan stiller Norge seg?

Abbas sa tirsdag at EU ikke har kunnet levere nye forhandlinger med Israel, palestinerne så derfor ingen annen utvei enn å gå til FN.

USA vil ikke anerkjenne en palestinsk stat som er ensidig erklært. Det er også i strid med Oslo-avtalen og Road map som fulgte.

Men et vedtak i FN vil likevel kunne by på store problemer ikke minst for Israel.

Andrew Rettman i euobserver.com skriver/siterer fra Haaretz hvordan palestinerne kan be om plass i Den internasjonale straffedomstolen. Palestinerne kommer nærmere internasjonale organer, der de allerede har stor sympati, særlig innen FN-systemet.

For his part, Riyad Mansour, the Palestinian ambassador to the UN, told Israeli daily Haaretz in an interview that he will submit the UN bid in «the coming weeks.»

«The Americans just could not deliver the Israelis,» he said on the Washington meeting, referring to Israel’s rejection of 1967 lines.

The Palestinians are confident that between 130 and 150 UN member states will acknowledge their bid, including a number of EU countries, such as Belgium, Denmark, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, Spain, Sweden and the UK.

Asked by Haaretz on EU support for the move, Mansour said: «Just hold tight. You will be hearing interesting news soon about it before September.»

The US is expected to veto Palestine’s UN membership at UN Security Council level, giving it a status similar to Kosovo (widely recognised, but blocked by Russia from joining the New York-based body) or Taiwan (recognised but blocked by China).

Even without UN membership, the result could cause a sea change in Israeli-Palestinian relations: Palestine could apply to join the International Criminal Court in The Hague and file suits against alleged Israeli ‘war crimes’, it could ask Israelis on occupied land to become Palestinian citizens or leave and it could seek extra rights as ‘prisoners of war’ for the 5,000-or-so Palestinians currently in Israeli jails.

The move could also ignite what is already a tinder box situation in the Middle East.

Asked by Haaretz what might happen the day after the UN vote, Mansour looked to Tahrir square in Cairo as an analogy for potential mass protests by Palestinians demanding change.

«The Palestinian people are like the Egyptian people and are capable of doing remarkable things. But these things you don’t give orders for. If the Egyptian people managed to change the US position in 18 days so that [US President] Obama told his ally [Egyptian leader] Mubarak to leave, what will the position of the international community be if the Palestinian people will say we want independence – and we want it now?»

En annen side ved besøket er Norges rolle som leder av giverlandsgruppen. Norge har en meget sentral rolle når det gjelder å øve påtrykk for at de respektive medlemsland i Giverlandsgruppen for palestinerne, AHLC, som stadig må gå inn med flere milliarder. Men en nepotistisk/korrupt stat kan ikke forvente å bli finansiert av utlandet.

Roy Vega