Det er en mulighet for at Bashar al-Assad og hans regime vil regionalisere konflikten i et forsøk på å klynge seg til makten. Det er i et slikt perspektiv man må se spenningen på grensen til Tyrkia.
Assad-regimet har mange strenger å spille på, og det vil ikke være første gang de eskalerer ute for å lette presset hjemme.
De har lang erfaring i å bruke Libanon som playground.
Claire Berlinski skriver på ricochet.com:
It’s not a secret that Syria is imploding. But the key thing to grasp is that it won’t stop there: There is a real possibility that this regime will take its neighbors down with it. I’m not sure that the West–which from what I can tell is now completely preoccupied with itself and its economic problems–is sufficiently grasping this.
According to Reuters, the international community is beginning to «plan for a Syria without the Assads.»
The risks of a slide into sectarian war are significant, most Syria-watchers nonetheless say, believing Assad will fight to the end, and start to regionalize the conflict by inciting violence in Lebanon, Turkey and across the borders with Israel. …
Analysts say the risks are high that Syria, an ally of Iran and Lebanon’s Shi’ite Hezbollah guerrillas and with a sectarian and ethnic mix of Sunni, Kurdish, Alawite and Christians, could slip into war.
Syria, they add, can make trouble in the region by trying to incite another war between Hezbollah and Israel. Recent demonstrations on the Israeli-Syrian frontier, which had been quiet for 38 years, were encouraged by Syrian authorities in an attempt to broaden the conflict.
«The Syrians have their fingers in many pies. They have many levers to put pressure on their neighbors and create problems between Hezbollah and Israel, between Sunni and Shi’ites in Lebanon and the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) and AKP (Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan’s party) in Turkey,» the diplomat said.
As a Syria-watcher myself, I agree. But what I don’t see mentioned anywhere in that article is anything to suggest what this «plan» for a Syria without the Assads might be–or any evidence that there is, in fact, a plan.
Judith reported with surprise that the Mavi Marmara dropped out of the Gaza flotilla. Of course it did, Judith. Turkey’s scared to death by this situation. Expect a nice warming in Turkish-Israeli relations now. The AKP has just received such a loud phone call from reality that even they can’t pretend it was just a wrong number.
Before you say, «Well, that’s good news!» re-read my last sentence: This is a phone call from reality so loud that even the AKP can’t ignore it. That means the phone just jumped off the nightstand and body-slammed them. If you’re still sleeping well, that’s your clue that you shouldn’t be.