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Ny forskning viser at havet stiger enda fortere enn FNs klimapanel anslo. Deres beregning var 28-43 cm innen 2100, men nye anslag går ut på at stigningen kan bli så mye som 80 – 1,5 meter innen århundreskiftet. Store deler av Bangladesh vil bli utradert.

Målinger viser at havnivået har vært mer eller mindre stabilt helt siden romertiden. Svingningene på 2000 år har ikke oversteget 20 cm. Det som nå er under oppseiling er uten sidestykke.

The new analysis comes from a UK/Finnish team which has built a computer model linking temperatures to sea levels for the last two millennia.

«For the past 2,000 years, the [global average] sea level was very stable, it only varied by about 20cm,» said Svetlana Jevrejeva from the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory (POL), near Liverpool, UK.

«But by the end of the century, we predict it will rise by between 0.8m and 1.5m.

«The rapid rise in the coming years is associated with the rapid melting of ice sheets.»

The model, she told reporters here at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) annual meeting, is able to mimic accurately sea levels reliably observed by tide gauges over the last 300 years.
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the currently observed rise of about three mm per year is significant, and many scientists working in the field expect to see an acceleration.

Last year, German researcher Stefan Rahmstorf used different methodology but reached a similar conclusion to Dr Jevrejeva’s group, projecting a sea level rise of between 0.5m and 1.4m by 2100.

FNs klimapanel tok ikke i tilstrekkelig grad hensyn til smelting av Grønlandsisen og Vest-Antarktis.


Forecast for big sea level rise