Hvis en synkende yresaktiv befolkning skal holde liv i en høy andel pensjonister og en ny innvandret underklasse, kan det resultere i enten velferdsstatens avskaffelse eller sammenbrudd, mener Paul Belien.
Han rekapitulerer Gustav Heinsohns teorier om demografiske pukler, og påpeker at de beste og høyest utdannede allerede søker seg til Canada, Australia og USA. Dette er folk Europa ikke har råd til å tape. Det er de som skal stå for innovasjon, dvs. konkurransedyktig industri. Det hjelper ikke å sitte igjen med håndverkere og sykepleiersker. Det er cutting-edge teknologien som forsvinner med disse folkene. Det er de beste som drar, og de som kommer inn havner nederst, enten i ufaglærte jobber, eller som sosialklienter, selv om det finnes en ny gruppe vellykkede innvandrere, og de kunne Belien fremhvet.
Hvordan skulle velferdsstaten stå på spill? Enten ved at staten ikke får nok inntekter, og/eller ved at velgerne stemmer nei til omfattende trygdeordninger.
Last year more than 155,000 Germans emigrated from their native country. Since 2004 the number of ethnic Germans who leave each year is greater than the number of immigrants moving in. While the emigrants are highly motivated and well educated, «those coming in are mostly poor, untrained and hardly educated,» says Stephanie Wahl of the German Institute for Economics.
In a survey conducted in 2005 among German university students, 52 percent said they would rather leave their native country than remain there. By «voting with their feet,» young, educated Germans affirm that Germany has no future to offer them and their children. As one couple who moved to the United States told the newspaper Die Welt: «Here our children have a future in which they will not have to fear unemployment and social decline.» There are two main reasons why so-called «ethno-Germans» emigrate. Some complain that the tax rates in Germany are so high that it is no longer worthwhile working for a living there. Others indicate they no longer feel at home in a country whose cultural appearance is changing dramatically.
The situation is similar in other countries in Western Europe. Since 2003, emigration has exceeded immigration to the Netherlands. In 2006, the Dutch saw more than 130,000 compatriots leave. The rise in Dutch emigration peaked after the assassinations of Pim Fortuyn and Theo van Gogh. This indicates that the flight from Europe is related to a loss of confidence in the future of nations which have taken in the Trojan horse of Islamism, but which, unlike the Trojans, lack the guts to fight.
Elsewhere in Western Europe immigration currently still surpasses emigration, though emigration figures are rising fast. In Belgium the number of emigrants surged by 15 percent in the past years. In Sweden, 50,000 people packed their bags last year — a rise of 18 percent compared to the previous year and the highest number of Swedes leaving since 1892. In the United Kingdom, almost 200,000 British citizens move out every year.
Americans who think that the European welfare state is the model to follow would do well to ponder the question why, if Europe is so wonderful, Europeans are fleeing from it. European welfare systems are redistribution mechanisms, taking money from skilled and educated Europeans in order to give it to nonskilled newcomers from the Third World.
Gunnar Heinsohn, a German sociologist at the University of Bremen, warns European governments that they are mistaken if they assume that qualified young ethnic Europeans will stay in Europe. «The really qualified are leaving,» Mr. Heinsohn says. «The only truly loyal towards France and Germany are those who are living off the welfare system, because there is no other place in the world that offers to pay for them… It is no wonder that young, hardworking people in France and Germany choose to emigrate,» he explains. «It is not just that they have to support their own aging population. If we take 100 20-year-olds [in France or Germany], then the 70 [indigenous] Frenchmen and Germans also have to support 30 immigrants of their own age and their offspring. This creates dejection in the local population, particularly in France, Germany and the Netherlands. So they run away.»
On Monday Francois Fillon, the new French prime minister, said that «Europe is not Eldorado,» emphasizing that his government intends to curb immigration by those who only seek welfare benefits. «Europe is hospitable, France is an immigration country and will continue to be so, but it will only accept foreigners prepared to integrate,» he stressed. Europe cannot afford to be «Eldorado» for foreigners any longer, because it has stopped being «home» for thousands of its own educated children, now eagerly looking for opportunities to move to America, Canada, Australia or New Zealand — white European nations outside Europe.
While the fertility rate in France is 1.9 children per woman, two out of every five newborns in France are children of Arab or African immigrants. In Germany (fertility rate 1.37) 35 percent of all newborns have a non-German background. Paradoxically, fertility rates in Turkey, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, etc., are lower than among immigrants from these countries in Europe. «A woman in Tunisia has on average 1.7 children. In France she has six because the French government pays her to have them,» Mr. Heinsohn explains. «Of course, the money was never intended to benefit Tunisian women in particular, but French women will not touch this money, whereas the Tunisian women are only too happy to… For Danish and German women the welfare benefits are too low to be attractive. Not so for the immigrants. So, what we see in England, France, Germany and the Netherlands are immigrant women who take low-paid jobs which they supplement with public benefits. It is not a fantastic income but sufficient for them,» he said.
Europe’s welfare system is causing a perverse process of population replacement. If the Europeans want to save their culture, they will have to slay the welfare state.
Paul Belien is a European writer. He is editor of The Brussels Journal and an adjunct fellow of the Hudson Institute.
Europeans’ flight from Europe