Sakset/Fra hofta

I den vitenskapelige sjargong betyr «very likely» det samme som 95 prosents sikkerhet. «Almost certain» betyr 99 prosent sikkerhet.

IPCC er over 90 prosent sikre på at klimaforandringene er menneskeskapt. Vil skeptikerne at vi skal vente til at vi er 99 prosent sikre?

The agency said that it would use stronger language to assess humanity’s influence on climatic change than it had previously done.

In 2001, it said that it was «likely» that human activities lay behind the trends observed at various parts of the planet; «likely» in IPCC terminology means between 66% and 90% probability.

Now, the panel concluded that it was at least 90% certain that human emissions of greenhouse gases rather than natural variations are warming the planet’s surface.

They projected that temperatures would probably rise by between 1.8C and 4C, though increases as small as 1.1C (2F) or as large as 6.4C (11.5F) were possible.

Publikum er ikke vant til vitenskapelig sjargong. Kanskje mediene heller skulle bruke folkelig målestokk og si det er 95 prosent sikkert at klimaforandringene er menneskeskap? Siv Jensens skepsis ville da fremstått som den uansvarlighet og useriøsitet det vitterlig er.