Nytt

Den siste meningsmålingen gir Ukip hele 25%. Målingen viser også at folk ville fortrekke en allianse mellom de konservative og Ukip, noe både Cameron og Farage nylig har avvist. Det er usikkert hvordan de tjuefem prosentene fordeler seg. Hvis det er en jevn fordeling i alle valgkretsene så kan de allikevel risikere å ikke få et eneste nytt mandat. Storbritannias valgsystem har ingen utjevningsmandater, her er winner takes all i hver valgkrets. Mye tyder allikevel på at det politiske landskapet i landet vil bli totalt forandret med Ukips fremgang.

 

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Professor i statsvitenskap, John Curtice fra Strathclyde Universitet sier at fordelingen fra meningsmålingen ville gitt Labour 253 mandater, de konservative 187, Ukip 128, Libaldemokratene 11, og andre 71.

Prof Curtice said: ‘If Ukip are to turn votes into Commons seats in Britain’s first-past-the-post system, they need to build up bastions of local strength. Today’s poll suggests they may have begun to do that.

‘The 25 per cent level represents a 22-point increase on the three per cent the party won in 2010. If that increase were to occur evenly in every constituency, they could still fail to pick up a single seat.

‘But today’s poll suggests Ukip’s support has increased much more in the South of England outside London than it has elsewhere in the UK – by a staggering 34 points.

‘If that level was recorded throughout the South, Ukip could win as many as 128 seats, with no less than 102 of them coming from the Conservatives, whose vote in the region is down 14 points. In that event, Cameron would be left with just 187 seats, almost as weak a position as the Conservatives were in after their calamitous defeat in 1997.

 

Daily Mail