Den økonomiske situasjonen i Hellas forverres, stikk i strid med troikanes planer. Tyskland og landene i Nord-Europa er fast bestemt på ikke å ta et tap, men det må de, og forberede velgerne på store utlegg. Hvordan vil tyskerne reagere?
Every detail of the Greek economy is worse than officially forecast just weeks ago.
The budget unveiled this morning estimates that public debt will reach 189pc of GDP next year (not 179pc).
The budget deficit will be 5.2pc (not 4.2pc).
The economy will shrink 4.5pc next year (not 3.8pc).
Unemployment is already 25.1pc and 55.6pc for youth.
Just for the record:
The EU-IMF Troika originally said that the economy would contract by just 2.6pc in 2010, before growing by 1.1pc in 2011, and 2.1pc in 2012.
In fact Greek GDP contracted by 4.5pc in 2010, 6.9pc in 2011, and will shrink 6.5pc this year, and now 4.5pc next year.
The cumulative error is colossal.
Thomas Wieser, the head of the European Working Group handling Greece, said today that press reports of further debt restructuring and official «haircuts» in the current Troika talks are pure fantasy.
If that is so – and what he means is that Germany, Holland, Finland, and Austria will not tolerate a haircut on their holdings of Greek debt – then the creditor countries are trying to maintain a ridiculous illusion for their own internal political reasons.
Greece cannot claw its way out of a 190pc of GDP debt load. The official haircut is coming sooner or later, and it will be an explosive political moment.
Chancellor Angela Merkel will have to account for direct losses to the Bundestag. A line will have to be written into the German budget covering the X billions of euros. Other line items may have to be cut. Welfare support for Germans, perhaps.
Having insisted for over two years that German taxpayers face no risk of loss on the Club Med rescue packages – and having indeed told them it generated a profit – she will have to explain why this has gone horribly wrong.