Det brygger opp til en ny kredittkrise, og denne gang er den global. Tilliten som ligger i bunnen av et internasjonalt lånemarked forsvinner. En indikator på krise er at prisen for å forsikre gjeld blir astronomisk.
En belgisk-fransk bank har havnet i alvorlige problemer. Det er usikkerheten fra Hellas som nå smitter.
In Europe, French and Belgian government officials are due to meet on Monday to discuss the crisis enveloping Dexia as speculation mounts about a possible break-up of the Franco-Belgian lender.
Last week, the cost of insuring Dexia bonds hit an all-time high of 900 basis points, nearly double the level just two months ago, meaning the annual cost to insure €10m (£8.59m) of the bonds is £900,000.
«The money ran out in June and what you are seeing now is the beginning of a new credit crunch, except this time it will be truly global, not Western,» said one senior London-based credit analyst.
Igår kom nyheten om at Hellas ikke greier å oppfylle sine budsjettmål. Underskuddet vil øke, ikke avta.
Greece was yesterday reported to have missed the deficit cutting target set for it by the EU and the IMF as part of the terms of its bail-out. According to Reuters, the Greek budget deficit will reach 8.5pc of GDP this year, missing a target 7.6pc.
Eursonens finansministre møtes til et nytt møte, men synes å ligge etter utviklingen.
Et nytt alarmerende trekk er at det brygger opp til bankkrise i Kina. Kinesiske banker har lånt ut penger til kommunale selskap, særlig innen eiendomsutvikling. Det er satt i gang enorme infrastrukturprosjekter. Lånene kan ikke betjenes. De sies at det gjelder 40 prosent av lånene. Hvis Kina, EU og USA samtidig går inn i resesjon kan konsekvensene bli uoverskuelige.
Noe slikt har verden aldri opplevd før.
Credit default swaps on Bank of China bonds have more than doubled since the beginning of August and hit 316.53 basis points at the end of last week, their highest level since March 2009, while the lender’s shares hit a 12-month low.
«The worries on China’s banks are around the slowdown in growth, however, the symptoms are the same as those we are seeing in Europe,» said Simon Adamson, a banks analyst at CreditSights.
A report published last week by CreditSights drew attention to the growing problems of the Chinese banking sector, with some estimates putting the proportion of the lenders’ loan books that are non-performing at more than 40pc.
Australian banks, which have been major users of wholesale funding markets, are among those getting caught in the new crunch. Credit default swaps on the bonds of National Australia Bank and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group are not far off double the level they were just two months ago and last week reached 12-month highs.
Banking crisis set to trigger new credit crunch
The global financial system is on the edge of a new credit crunch as the cost of insuring the bonds of banks across the world hits new highs, analysts have said.