Iran har væpnet Hizbollah til tennene, og UNIFILs 11.500 mann har ikke løftet en finger. Til forskjell fra 2006 er nå den libanesiske hæren og regjeringen på den islamistiske siden, og later som det er identisk med å forsvare nasjonens interesser. Det er et stort knefall som gjør krigsfaren større.

Hizbollah spiller et høyt spill når de forsøker å implisere Israel i attentatet på Rafik Hariri. Påstandene er så ville at de kaller på latteren, men i Midtøsten er ingen løgn for drøy til å bli trodd.

Enda mer urovekkende er det at Tyrkia ser ut til å ha skiftet side. Den nye tyrkiske etterretningssjefen skal være pro-iransk, og Israels forsvarsminister Ehud Barak har varslet om at mange av Israels hemmeligheter kan ha blitt avdekket.

Last month, Israel released detailed intelligence on Hezbollah’s build-up in civilian areas in southern Lebanon. Armories, missile batteries, and headquarters were situated in the midst of homes, schools, and clinics. Tens of thousands of missiles, some with deadly accuracy, have flowed into Lebanon from Syria and Iran since the 2006 war and UNSC Resolution 1701, which banned such shipments.

Some of those shipments for Hezbollah were sent by sea, and Israel and Western countries have been successful in intercepting at sea hundreds of tons of missiles and artillery shells. Other shipments arrive overland or in flights to Syria via Turkey. Al Jazeera reports:

In May 2007, Turkish authorities seized weapons hidden on a Syria-bound train from Iran after Kurdish separatist fighters derailed it with a bomb.

According to one account, the weapons on the train included a rocket launch pad and 300 rockets.

One little-publicized case in 2006 involved an aircraft loaded with C-803 anti-ship missiles (one such Chinese-Iranian missile hit an Israeli navy ship, killing four sailors). According to USA Today:

A spy satellite photographed Iranian crews loading three missile launchers and eight crates, each normally used to carry a Chinese-designed C-802 Noor missile, aboard a transport plane at Mehrabad air base near Tehran. The Ilyushin Il-76 transport plane left for Damascus, but Iraqi air traffic controllers denied it permission to enter Iraq’s airspace. The Iranian flight crew then requested permission to fly over Turkey. Turkish controllers granted permission — but only if the plane would land for an inspection. The plane returned to Tehran, where the military cargo was unloaded.
Turkey’s role in blocking Iranian weapons destined to Israel’s enemies has been crucial. But this week, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak told a closed meeting that the new head of Turkish intelligence is a “supporter of Iran.” Barak continued:

There are a lot of our secrets in Turkish hands. The thought that they could have been exposed to the Iranians is very troubling.

The Israeli-Turkish “secrets” were part of a very deep military relationship between the two countries that included Israeli upgrades to Turkish tanks and planes and the supply of Israel’s latest technologies, including long-range unmanned aircraft. When a severe earthquake hit Turkey in 1999, the Israeli army was asked to send its crack search and rescue unit to the devastated Gölcük Naval Base to try to rescue hundreds of Turkish officers and their families trapped under the rubble. The Israel Air Force conducted its exercises in the wide expanse of Turkish air space, something they couldn’t do in tiny Israel. Secrets of combat tactics, often on display in such exercises, are among an air force’s most closely held secrets.

Today, Israel conducts its exercises in other countries such as Romania, Greece, and other locations closer to Iran.

Forholdet til Tyrkia er nå så dårlig at Israel ikke en gang fikk lov til å overfly Tyrkia på vei hjem med seks israelske piloter som var omkommet i Romania.

Turkey and Iran announced on August 1, 2010, that they are coordinating counter-terrorism activity and intelligence to fight Kurdish terrorism plaguing both countries. Will that cooperation expand to Israel-Hezbollah issues, as well?

As Lebanon-Hezbollah Tensions Rise, Turkey’s Pro-Iran Stance Is Trouble for Israel
The Rafik Hariri trial could ignite Lebanon and spill into Israel, where concern mounts that former partner Turkey may be sharing Israeli military secrets with Hezbollah.