Kommentar

Hvis ikke Iran hindres i skaffe seg atomvåpen, må verden forberede seg på atom-terror. Kontrollen over Irans atomprogram er unndratt president Khatami og utenriksdepartementet. Det er ingen som riktig vet hvem som kontrollerer det.

Det skriver Brenda Shaffer i International Herald Tribune. Shaffer er stipendiat ved International Security Program at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.

Å ødelegge atomprogrammet med militære midler er vanskelig, da det er spredt på mange steder, og ligger i tett befolkede områder. Iranerne har nok tatt lærdom av Osirak.

The Iranians have acknowledged the existence of many installations holding fissile materials – most of which are in highly populated areas.

Det sier litt om maktstrukturen i Iran at man ikke helt vet hvem som har kontrollen over atomprogrammet:

The Iranian public and foreign governments acknowledge that they really don’t know just who in Iran controls these facilities.
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Iran’s president and the Iranian Foreign Ministry, for instance, are not among the inner circle with access to full information on the facilities or knowledge of their command and control structure. It is not clear how this inner circle would act when facing any threat to their power: Some may consider selling off nuclear materials to ensure their future or advance their agendas.

Shaffer sier noe interessant: USA bør finne ut hvem som bestemmer, og understreke deres personlige ansvar:

Individuals who are engaged in advancing the Iranian program should be personally deterred and prevented from sharing information or materials with terrorist elements.

Sheffer sier hverken Bush eller Kerry har noen oppskrift på hvordan de skal få Iran til å bøye av.

Iran har hittil vist seg meget egenrådig. Å følge europeernes vei, førte ikke frem.

Last autumn, Washington bowed to European wishes to engage Iran through cooperative measures, hoping that it would abandon its nuclear program. The British, German and French foreign ministers signed an agreement with Tehran under which they would prevent Iran from being referred to the United Nations Security Council – where it would face sanctions for its many violations of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty – if Tehran halted uranium enrichment, adopted the treaty’s Additional Protocol, and disclosed completely the extent of its nuclear program.
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The result: Tehran’s failure to declare all of its nuclear activities continued into this year, its Parliament failed to ratify the Additional Protocol, Iran is gearing up to resume uranium enrichment, and inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency faced obstructions several times. Concerned voices in Europe realize that Tehran simply gained a year to advance its program. Some key Europeans are now seeking an effective plan that would rescue their policy of engagement. The United States should lead with concrete policy options.

Multilateralisme er bra, men ikke nok, sier Sheffer.

Det er pinlig for Bush: Iran var med i axis of evil, og er i ferd med å peke nese til verdenssamfunnet og skaffe seg atomvåpen, rett foran nesa på amerikanerne. Et beleiret demokrati i Irak og et nukleært prestestyre er intet lystelig scenario.

IHT: If Iran is not checked, nuclear terror is next