Nytt

Historikeren Michael Burleigh skriver i Daily Mail at Paris-terroren er annerledes. Den kom på et tidspunkt hvor den aktiverer frykt på mange plan: Europa var allerede med nervene på høykant etter migrasjonsbølgen som opplevdes som invasjon.

Derfor tror ikke Burleigh at ettervirkningene vil forsvinne så fort. Det har satt seg noe. President Hollande har forlenget unntakstilstanden i tre måneder. Det er ekstraordinært.

I bakgrunnen spøker frykten for hva som forestår:

Yet this new assault is a step beyond. It is an attack more profoundly serious than anything seen to date and with echoes that will reverberate for many years.

Highly organised, apparently directed from abroad, supremely difficult to defend against, this may well be the beginning of a long wave of assaults, as a Europe that is already in deep crisis grapples with the collapse of Muslim societies on its doorstep. We must grasp this, and grasp it fast.

Oppmerksomheten rundt grenser vil tilta. Schengen var allerede under press. Hvem blir det første landet som bryter ut?

Folk vil kreve kontroll med grensene. Alle har kunnet se at Europas grenser ligger åpne.

Overvåking er ikke noe svar. Hvem har ressurser til å overvåke 2.000 ekstremister? Mange steder vil en agent skille seg ut og bli avslørt.

Maintaining 24/7 surveillance on 2,000 suspects is almost impossible, since it requires about 30 agents to keep one person under constant observation. Which ones do you choose to follow? Where do you find intelligence agents who do not stick out in the banlieues?

Burleigh tror det er sannsynlig at Storbritannia vil oppleve noe lignende.

burleigh.michael

IS har den senere tid opplevd tilbakegang på slagmarken. Det kan motivere til å ta krigen til Europa.

It is very likely the UK will undergo a similar attack, even if assault rifles may be harder to acquire than in France (although criminals seem to acquire Uzis with alarming ease). My particular fear is of a hijacked tanker filled with liquid chlorine being rammed into a Tube station entrance. Everyone in the station would be killed as the gas drifted down the escalators. IS has already experimented with toxic gases.

Burleighs forslag til strategi er problematisk. En allianse med Putin og Iran har store svakheter, for å si det mildt.

If we are, as President Hollande says, at ‘war’, then we should conduct it with utter ruthlessness both here and abroad.

We must grasp the nettle of foreign policy, however painful or embarrassing it might feel. In the face of this threat, we must be practical. And if that means forging a Grand Alliance with Iran and Russia in the manner of the Second World War, then let’s do so.

If it means postponing a reckoning with the ‘butcher’ Bashar al-Assad, then fine. He is not the main threat.

 

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3319019/No-British-Muslims-NOT-neutral-bystanders-war-join-writes-MICHAEL-BURLEIGH.html