En ame­ri­kansk etterr­ret­nings­ana­lyse fra 2005 spådde at Pakis­tan var på vei mot å bli en “fai­led state”, som ville være tali­ba­ni­sert innen 2015. Nå ser utvik­lin­gen ut til å gå enda ras­kere. Atten­ta­tet på Ben­zir Bhutto kan bryte ned det som fin­nes av demo­kra­tisk struk­tur.

In early 2005, a joint security assess­ment by the CIA and the U.S. Natio­nal Intel­li­gence Coun­cil pre­dicted Pakis­tan would become “a fai­led state, ripe with civil war, bloods­hed, inter-pro­vin­cial rival­ries and a struggle for con­trol of its nuclear weapons and com­plete Tali­ba­ni­sa­tion” by 2015.

Following Bhutto’s death in Rawal­pindi on Thurs­day, some experts believe the time­frame on that assess­ment may now have been brought for­ward, with poli­ti­cal uphea­val pitching Pakis­tan, a nuclear-armed power since 1998, towards break­down.


It’s a very, very valid risk,” said M.J. Gohel, the head of the Asia-Paci­fic Foun­da­tion, a Lon­don-based security and intel­li­gence think-tank, descri­bing the pos­si­bi­lity that parts of Pakistan’s nuclear tech­no­logy could fall into mili­tant hands.

It’s only a mat­ter of time before al Qaeda or some­body sym­pat­he­tic to them gets hold of nuclear weapons, and if al Qaeda or its sym­pat­hi­s­ers are to get hold of them, then Pakis­tan is at this point the weakest link in the chain.

It is the most unstable coun­try in the world that has nuclear weapons. Iran may want nuclear weapons, but it doesn’t have them today. Pakis­tan does.”
Paul Wilkin­son, the for­mer head of the Centre for the Study of Ter­ro­rism and Poli­ti­cal Vio­lence at St And­rews Uni­ver­sity, said an unstable Pakis­tan could lead to a “night­mare sce­na­rio”.

We could have a situa­tion where extre­mists were able to con­trol the nuclear faci­lities of Pakis­tan,” he told the UK’s Press Associa­tion. “That would be a very dan­gerous, night­mare sce­na­rio, and one that we really ought to be con­cerned about.”

“Fai­led state” Pakis­tan raises nuclear threat

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