Hans Rustad President Mohamed Morsi kom lørdag med visse innrømmelser, men ikke på det vesentlige punkt: utsettelse av folkeavstemningen berammet til 15. desember. Derimot truer han med unntakstilstand for å få gjennomført folkeavstemningen. En slik trussel vil neppe friste opposisjonen til samarbeid.
Skulle Morsi få de militære med på unntakstilstand har Egypt tatt et stort skritt mot diktaturet. Opposisjonen tror at Brorskapet har inngått en avtale med de militære om at de beholder sin priviligerte posisjon mot at de støtter Brorskapet.
Men nå gjelder det å true opposisjonen til å holde seg i skinnet, og derfor er det nødvendig å komme med noen innrømmelser utad:
Morsi varslet via statsministeren at han er villig til å oppheve fullmakten som gir ham rett til å treffe avgjørelser uten å kunne overprøves av domstoler.
But in a midnight news conference, his prime minister said Mr. Morsi was offering concessions that he had appeared to dismiss out of hand a few days before. The president rescinded most of his sweeping Nov. 22 decree that temporarily elevated his decisions above judicial review and drew tens of thousands of protesters into the streets calling for his downfall. He also offered a convoluted arrangement for the factions to negotiate constitutional amendments this week that would be added to the charter after the vote.
Er glasset halvfullt eller halvtomt?
The moves on Saturday offered little hope of fully resolving the standoff, in part because opposition leaders had ruled out — even before his concessions were announced — any rushed attempt at a compromise just days before the referendum.
“No mind would accept dialogue at gunpoint,” said Mohamed Abu El Ghar, an opposition leader, alluding to previously floated ideas about last-minute talks for constitutional amendments.
Taken together, the announcements, rolled out over a confusing day, appeared to indicate the president’s determination to do whatever it takes to get to the referendum, which his Islamist supporters say will lay the foundation of a new democracy and a return to stability.
Amid growing concerns among his advisers that the Interior Ministry might be unable to secure either the polls or the institutions of government in the face of renewed violent protests, the state media reported early Saturday that he would soon order the armed forces to keep order and authorize its solders to arrest civilians.
Hvordan vil opposisjonen reagere? Vil de oppfatte innrømmelsen som gjort i god mening, eller som en felle? Ser man nærmere på «innrømmelsen» er den ikke den utstrakte hånd opposisjonen forventer. Det er en innrømmelse for å redde Morsis egen strategi fordi han har møtt motstand. Morsi forsøker ikke å skjule sine motiver. Han gir fra seg fullmaktene, men ikke retten til å beskytte grunnlovsutkastet mot innblanding. Dermed er lovnadene om å gjøre tilføyelser til grunnloven etter folkeavstemningen tomme løfter.
Truslene om unntakstilstand innebærer at soldater vil få rett til å stille sivile for militærdomstoler.
Mr. Morsi said he issued the Nov. 22 decree that set off the crisis to prevent the Mubarak-era courts from dissolving the constitutional assembly and upending the transition to democracy. The terms of his concession were ill-defined; the new decree Mr. Morsi issued Saturday night said he retained the limited authority to issue “constitutional declarations” protecting the draft charter that judges could not overturn. Although the plan for martial law outlined in Al Ahram would not fully suspend civil law, it would nonetheless have the effect of suspending legal rights by empowering soldiers under the control of the defense minister to try civilians in military courts.
Er de militære inneforstått med Morsis trusler? Det synes slik. Foreløpig stiller de militære seg bak presidenten.
For now, the military appears to back Mr. Morsi. Soon after the state newspaper Al Ahram suggested the president would impose martial law, a military spokesman read a statement over state television that echoed Mr. Morsi’s own speeches.
The military “realizes its national responsibility for maintaining the supreme interests of the nation and securing and protecting the vital targets, public institutions and the interests of the innocent citizens,” the spokesman said, warning of “divisions that threaten the State of Egypt.”
Nor did Mr. Morsi’s Islamist allies expect his proposals to succeed. Many said they had concluded that much of the secular opposition was primarily interested in obstructing the transition to democracy at all costs, to try to block the Islamists from winning elections. Instead, some of the president’s supporters privately relished the bind they believed Mr. Morsi had built for the opposition by giving in to some demands, forcing their secular opponents to admit they are afraid to take their case to the ballot box.
Man får inntrykk av dype motsetninger, for ikke å si hat mellom liberale/nasjonale/sekulære og moderate på den ene siden og islamistene på den annen. I en slik kontekst er trusselen om unntakstilstand som å helle bensin på bålet.
The announcement of impending martial law marked the steepest escalation yet in the political battle between Egypt’s new Islamist leaders and their secular opponents over the draft constitution.
