Moqtada al-Sadr er langtfra så populær som vi ofte hører. Han får lov å ture frem fordi de andre er så svake. Men denne gang ga ayatollah Sistani amerikanerne frie hender.

Nytimes-journliaten Dexter Filkins har sett på Sistanis bevegelser under Najaf-opprøret: Sistani valgte å reise ut av landet, like etter at det brøt ut, som for å si: dette får dere løse. Han kommer hjem når amerikanerne har fått overtaket og er ved å knuse militsen.

Amerikanerne sier at Sistani sogar lovet dem at hvis Moqtada ikke var villig til kompromiss, skulle Sistani støtte dem i å storme moskeen.

If Mr. Sadr did not back down, American officials said, Ayatollah Sistani assured them that he would support a storming of the shrine by Iraqi troops.

«There was a lot of thought that he had left the country originally to give us a chance to take control of the situation,» an American military officer said of Ayatollah Sistani. «Now he is coming back to help us find a solution, possibly a peaceful result. But the end result is, he wants us to help disband the Mahdi Army.»

Filkins beskriver selve situasjonen natt til fredag, da Sistanis folk innkalte til pressekonferanse. De rundt 50 journalistene samlet seg for å høre en talsmann. Akkurat da gikk hoveddøren opp, og ut kom Moqtada al-Sadr. Han gikk raskt ut, og forsvant. Så enkelt.

Soldatene hans tok med seg sine våpen, og han har ikke lovet noe utover å rømme Najaf. Lørdag begynte kampene i Sadr City.

Men Filkins peker på noe svært interessant, hvis man sammenligner med Fallujah: der førte amerikanernes seriøse krigføring til protester. Det samme har ikke skjedd i Najaf. Der har det vært taust, og hadde Sadr hatt så stor oppslutning som meningsmålingene viser, ville aldri amerikanerne kunnet drive hans milits tilbake på denne måten.

Indeed, the relentless military assault that unfolded here last week could not possibly have been carried out if Mr. Sadr were as large and popular a figure as he sometimes seems to be. In all likelihood, the American operation to expel the Mahdi Army from the shrine could never have gone forward without the sanction of some very powerful Iraqi leaders – including Ayatollah Sistani himself.

The destruction caused by the fighting certainly approached the level of damage wrought during the American assault on Falluja last April, when the Marines began a huge operation after four American contract employees were killed and their bodies mutilated. In Falluja, amid reports that hundreds of Iraqis had been killed, an outcry among Iraqi political leaders caused the Americans to halt. But here in Najaf, where dozens and perhaps hundreds of Mahdi Army fighters were killed and much of the old city was reduced to ruins, no similar outcry came forth.

Utnytter tomrommet

The kid-glove treatment of Mr. Sadr here, after days of fighting that left hundreds of Iraqis dead, points up the dilemma faced by American commanders and Iraq’s new leaders. As much as both groups would like to capture or kill Mr. Sadr – and there is no doubt that they would – neither the American military nor Iraq’s American-appointed government feels politically strong enough to get away with it.

It is for that reason, too, that Mr. Sadr and his Mahdi Army will almost certainly be back.