Hans Rustad Europeere, nordmenn intet unntak, har med skadefryd skrevet om USAs nedgang i lang tid, til tross for europeisk sikkerhet er helt avhengig av USAs. Europeerne har snart ikke et forsvar som fortjener navnet.
Entusiasmen man omfavner Kina med følges av dystre spådommer om USA. Stemmer disse? Langtifra. USA vil øke befolkningen med 100 millioner frem til 2050, og ingen bruker mer på forskning og utvikling. USA er og forblir nummer 1.
Over the next 40 years, demographers estimate that the U.S. population will surge by an additional 100 million people, to 400 million over all. The population will be enterprising and relatively young. In 2050, only a quarter will be over 60, compared with 31 percent in China and 41 percent in Japan.
..In his book, «The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050,» über-geographer Joel Kotkin sketches out how this growth will change the national landscape. Extrapolating from current trends, he describes an archipelago of vibrant suburban town centers, villages and urban cores.
..The demographic growth is driven partly by fertility. The American fertility rate is 50 percent higher than Russia, Germany or Japan, and much higher than China. Americans born between 1968 and 1979 are more family-oriented than the boomers before them, and are having larger families.
In addition, the U.S. remains a magnet for immigrants. Global attitudes about immigration are diverging, and the U.S. is among the best at assimilating them (while China is exceptionally poor). As a result, half the world’s skilled immigrants come to the U.S. As Kotkin notes, between 1990 and 2005, immigrants started a quarter of the new venture-backed public companies.
The United States already measures at the top or close to the top of nearly every global measure of economic competitiveness. A comprehensive 2008 Rand Corporation study found that the U.S. leads the world in scientific and technological development. The U.S. now accounts for a third of the world’s research-and-development spending. Partly as a result, the average American worker is nearly 10 times more productive than the average Chinese worker, a gap that will close but not go away in our lifetimes.
This produces a lot of dynamism. As Stephen J. Rose points out in his book «Rebound: Why America Will Emerge Stronger From the Financial Crisis,» when income is adjusted for family size, the percentage of prime-age American adults earning between $35,000 and $70,000 declined by 12 points between 1979 and 2007. But that’s largely because the percentage earning more than $105,000 increased by 14 points. Over the last 10 years, 60 percent of Americans made more than $100,000 in at least one of those years, and 40 percent had incomes that high for at least three.
Norske journalister snakker nesten ikke om annet enn de 40 millioner som ikke har hatt sykeforsikring. Ut fra beskrivelsene skulle man tro at USA allerede er på vei inn i solnedgangen. Hvor kommer disse beskrivelsene fra? Er det projisering av frykt for deres egne samfunn?
Norge og Europa burde være langt mer opptatt sin egen fremtid. Den er langt dystrere enn USAs, ikke bare pga innvandringen, som er skjevfordelt, men fordi disse tynger trygdebudsjett, samtidig som konkurransefriheten mangler.
En annen ting er at amerikanerne selv henger med hodet og tror på pessimistene. De tar feil, skriver David Brooks. Europeerne har i langt større grad grunn til bekymring.
