17 økonomieksperter, hvorav to fra Tysklands vismannsråd, og flere fra London School of Economics, alle euro-tilhengere, sier EU er raskt på vei mot et euro-sammenbrudd.

EU oppfører seg som en søvngjenger. Spania vil snart være i likviditetskrise, og Italia følger hakk i hæl.

Europe is “sleepwalking towards disaster”, according to the 17 experts, who warned that over the past few weeks “the situation in the debtor countries has deteriorated dramatically”.

“The sense of a neverending crisis, with one domino falling after another, must be reversed. The last domino, Spain, is days away from a liquidity crisis,” said the economists. They include two members of Germany’s Council of Economic Experts and leading euro specialists at the London of School of Economics, all euro supporters.

“This dramatic situation is the result of a eurozone system which, as currently constructed, is thoroughly broken. The cause is a systemic failure. It is the responsibility of all European nations that were parties to its flawed design, construction and implementation to contribute to a solution. Absent this collective response, the euro will disintegrate,” they added in a co-signed report for the Institute for New Economic Thinking.

Det er ikke første gang eksperter kommer med dommedagsscenarier. Det har ikke hjulpet hittil. EU er for tung, for splittet til å kunne handle resolutt. Euroen er et havari i sakte kino.

Det hjelper ikke at også tysk økonomi er kommet i søkelyset. Moody’s sier at heller ikke Tyskland har rygg til å bære alle landene som havner i krise. Det har tyske skattebetalere for lengst funnet ut. Hindringen for at Tyskland stiller opp har derfor vokst seg mye høyere. Angela Merkel har ikke noe mandat til å tre støttende til, og hun vet det. Hun skal forsvare tyske interesser, ikke EUs. Det hjelper ikke at ekspertene advarer om katastrofale tap hvis euroen bryter sammen.

Ekspertene har for øvrig en plan for hvordan euroen kan reddes. Men den forutsetter at man trekke veksler på Tysklands kredittverdighet. Det finnes ingen fri lunsj. Til syvende og sist må det være noen som kan ta tapet, og tapet kan bli astronomisk. Hvorfor skulle Tyskland ta en slik risiko? Det virker mindre og mindre sannsynlig at tyskerne vil ta en slik risiko, selv om behovet for en redning bare stiger. Her ligger paradokset og ironien.

The proposal is based on a plan by the German Council of Experts. Each country puts all debt above the Maastricht ceiling of 60pc of GDP into the fund. Each would be responsible for its own debt but would be able to borrow through joint bonds, raising money on Germany’s credit card.
The debt would be paid off over 20 years, with each state putting up foreign reserves, gold and other collateral to ensure compliance. It is the opposite of fiscal union: the eurozone would return to fiscal sovereignty and, since the liabilities would be fixed and the fund self-liquidating, it would comply with Germany’s constitution.

Som for å understreke alvoret: verdens største obligasjonsfond, Pimco, sier de vil vekte seg ned i tyske obligasjoner.

The giant US bond fund PIMCO said on Tuesday that it would retreat further from the German bond market after Moody’s issued a negative watch on the AAA ratings of Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. “We’re expecting a further ratings downgrade in the future,” said the group.

Europe is sleepwalking towards imminent disaster, warn top economists
The euro has completely broken down as a workable system and faces collapse with “incalculable economic losses and human suffering” unless there is a drastic change of course, according to a group of leading economists.