Nytt

Opposisjonen i Iran venter seg omfattende utrenskninger når Mahmoud Ahmadinejad innsettes for en ny periode, trolig i begynnelsen av august. Degraderinger har allerede begynt.

Problemet er at opposisjonen er så bred: selv blant de konservative finnes en blokk som samles under banneret: «alle unntatt Ahmadinejad».

The reformist ranks have been swollen by a strong «Anyone but Ahmadinejad» group of conservatives, clerics and even some Revolutionary Guard generals. «They all hate Ahmadinejad with a vengeance,» Ansari said.

Ali Ansari er leder av Iran-instituttet ved St. Andrews-universitetet i Skottland.

Det er flere paralleller mellom dagens situasjon og 79-revolusjonen. Shahen pådro seg vreden til de skriftlærde i den hellige byen Qom. Det samme har Den øverste leder gjort, riktignok ikke alle, men en gruppe og deres mistillit undergraver Ali Khameneis religiøse legitimitet.

The Assembly of Combatant Clerics, an influential group of mullahs in the holy city of Qom, sent an open letter saying: «The people of Iran, who with thousands of hopes and wishes and excitement came to the voting boxes, are now gathering the bodies of their youth out of blood and soil and are in mourning.

«Should these justice-seek-ing objections be answered with bullets that rip through the hearts of their children?»

Utrenskning

Allerede ved innsettelsen for fire år siden skiftet Ahmadinejad ut 10.000 «managers», folk i lederposisjon. Nå forventes det utrenskninger av alle som har vist sympati for opposisjonen, eller unnlatt å støtte Ahmadinejad.

Regimer som må ty til vold har lett for å bli paranoide, og skaffer seg således enda flere fiender.

«There will be a purge, no doubt about it,» said Ali Ansari, director of the Iranian Institute of St Andrews University, who until recently often travelled to Iran for research.

«There are people in Tehran who think, now that the regime has won, they will be left alone. I can’t tell you how far from the truth this is.»

The purge may already have begun. Akbar Torkan, the deputy oil minister and a rising star in the government, was sacked after writing sympathetically in an opposition newspaper.

Iranian sources said 17 senior officers in the elite Revolutionary Guard had been «reassigned» because their loyalties were suspect.

It is not a new tactic for Ahmadinejad. Since he became president in 2004 he has replaced every ambassador and all but one of Iran’s provincial governors with cronies, as well as filling important ministries with allies.

«I expect Ahmadinejad to continue the purge he started when he became president,» said Amir Taheri, an Iranian analyst. «He will go for the parliament, the Guardian Council, where four members were against him, and even the expediency council, which oversees the office of supreme leader.»

Hvis oljeprisen ikke stiger radikalt vil økonomien forverres. Irans stilling internasjonalt er betydelig svekket, til sunninaboenes tilfredshet. Men et svekket regime kan bety et farligere styre utenrikspolitisk. Russland har hittil støttet Iran, men det kan bli en politisk belastning.


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