Avstemningen på Krim kan øke apetitten til prorussiske krefter i Øst-Ukraina. Kanskje det samme vil være mulig der?

Kan resultatet på nærmere 97 % ja-stemmer gi Vladimir Putin en berusende følelse av medgang, hvis han bare tør?

Hvor «modig» han tør å være, bestemmer EU. Et forsiktig svar fra EU kan være det som får Putin til å øke innsatsen.

Det virker ikke lovende når Luxembourgs utenriksminister sier det ikke er aktuelt å fryse midlene til lederne for de store russiske energiselskapene.

In Brussels, foreign ministers of European Union countries met on Monday to weigh a first response to Moscow’s unfolding strategy in Ukraine, including possible economic sanctions.

One of the ministers attending the European Union meeting in Brussels, Sebastian Kurz of Austria, gave a strong indication that the punitive European measures under debate would not initially reach into the highest echelons of Russia’s powerful energy companies, which are close to the Kremlin.

In a radio interview, Mr. Kurz said Sunday’s ballot in Ukraine would trigger an array of measures including visa bans and the freezing of assets held by political and military figures who orchestrated Russia’s intervention in Crimea, Reuters reported.

Asked whether the list would include the heads of the energy giants Gazprom and Rosneft, as reported on Friday in Germany, Mr. Kurz replied: “This is not expected at this time.”

He added: “I think picking business bosses indiscriminately would be a wrong step.”

The foreign ministers meeting in Brussels, he said, would draw up a list of people to be subjected to the measures. The ministers have been reported to be trying to reduce a tally of up to 130 names to a smaller number.

Moskva vil føye uhyre nøye med på hva EU foretar seg. Hvis det viser seg at sanksjoner bare er prat, kan det komme flere utspill fra Putin.