Stratfor tar for seg presset mot samholdet i EU. Det går en nasjonalistisk bølge over Europa som kommer til å sette EU på prøve. Denne gang kommer ikke kritikken fra periferien, men fra kjernen av EU; Frankrike og Storbritannia.

According to recent opinion polls, a growing number of French citizens have lost faith in the European project. Some even support exiting the eurozone and returning to the franc. The current administration in Paris is well aware of this growing gap between voters and political elites. In the wake of elections, the government will work to reverse the country’s economic downturn before Euroskeptic sentiment becomes too strong to be contained. This will mean a renewed focus on economic policy and a potential Cabinet reshuffle to regain the initiative. But the more the public sees the government as ineffective, the more difficult it will be for it to negotiate with members of the ruling party, the opposition, unions and business leaders.

In the near term, Paris is unlikely to substantially modify its pro-integration agenda. Over time, however, Euroskepticism could offer a substantial challenge to these plans. Anti-integration ideology is gaining ground elsewhere in Europe, and the real challenge to the European Union will come not from its periphery but from its political core. This electoral season will not bring about substantial changes to the European Union, but could set the foundation for a process of electoral growth by nationalist forces, which would eventually challenge the survival of the European Union in its current form.