Flere hundre tusen mennesker feiret jubileum for Fatah i Gaza fredag. Det er første gang på fem år at Fatah har kunnet ha en offisiell markering.

Mellom 300.000 og 1,2 million var til stede, og det bor 1,9 mill på Gaza-stripen. Motivet synes å være begeistring over det mange mener er fremgang for den palestinske saken: følelsen av å komme ut som vinner av siste krig med Israel og oppgradering av status i FN. Både Fatah og Hamas signaliserer vilje til enighet og folk vil gjerne vise begeistring for en slik enhet.

Men er den sannsynlig? Bibi Netanyahu advarer mot at Hamas kan komme til å overta det palestinske selvstyret.

Mkhaimar Abusada, a political scientist at Al Azhar University in Gaza City, said relations between the parties have clearly improved since the Gaza conflict, but he called the rallies, telephone calls between leaders and exchange of political prisoners “confidence-building measures,” not substantive progress. He and others noted that the factions have signed no fewer than four peace pacts in the past five years, none of which have been fulfilled, and that those agreements call for establishing a national unity government, holding presidential and parliamentary elections and reconstituting the Palestine Liberation Organization to include Hamas, among other things.

“What we see now is some kind of moral reconciliation,” Professor Abusada said. “Hamas and Fatah are no longer inciting against each other, Hamas and Fatah are no longer accusing each other, but the big issues have not been tackled yet.”

Israel and the United States have expressed deep concerns about the prospect of reconciliation, particularly now that an emboldened Gaza leadership feels it has the upper hand. Twice in the last few days, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has warned in public comments that Hamas could “take over” the Palestinian Authority. Last month, after Mr. Meshal promised at his own huge Gaza rally to liberate Palestine “from the river to the sea,” Mr. Netanyahu condemned Mr. Abbas for considering a full partnership with him.