Også i Dubai gjør man seg sine tanker om omveltningene andre steder i den arabiske verden. Verdens 335. rikeste mann stoler ikke på at USA skal hjelpe araberne med å holde perserne vekke.

Få steder i verden var finanskrisen mer synlig enn i Dubai. Nærmest over natten stoppet byggeboomen opp i denne forgylte boblen av luksus, bygd opp av underbetalte bengalere og andre fra det såkalte sørasiatiske subcontinent. En av de som har flest av disse i sin tjeneste – ca 40.000 – er Khalaf Al-Habtoor, stifter og styreleder i Al-Habtoor Gruppen, et selskap som blant bygget og eier Dubais flaggskip, hotellet Burj Al-Arab.

Om en skal tro Forbes, tapte mannen nesten halvannen milliard dollar på finanskrisen, men han er fortsatt dollardmilliardær. I en lengre kommentar i avisen Gulf News delte han sine tanker om utviklingen i Midt-Østen. Det blir fort klart at han ikke stoler for mye hverken på amerikanerne eller sine shiamuslimske naboer over Gulfen.

Forget the fiery rhetoric! The US/Israel and Iran have more in common than you might think. All share the same aim: to control oil-rich Arab States and prevent them from forming a power bloc. Earlier, they were co-conspirators in that endeavour. The question is whether Iran truly is an enemy of the West as the Iranian leadership tries to portray?

The rivalry between Persians and Arabs goes back to the Muslim conquests when Persians embraced Islam. Today, Iranians wrap themselves in an Islamic flag yet the pre-Islamic Zoroastrian New Year Nowrouz is still Iran’s most celebrated festival. Attempts by Iranian clerics to undermine the Shiite holy city of Najaf in Iraq in favour of the Iranian city of Qom exemplify Tehran’s nationalism.

If Iran was a true friend of Arabs, it would not impede Arabic being spoken, the construction of Sunni mosques or parents from giving traditional Arab names to their newborns. Moreover, Tehran still occupies UAE islands, refuses demands from Arab Al Ahwaz (Khuzestan) for autonomy, has territorial claims on Bahrain and threatens airlines that use ‘Arabian Gulf’ instead of ‘Persian Gulf’ with being barred from Iranian airspace.

Akkurat, der kom kronargumentet enhver med mer enn overfladisk kjennskap til oljenasjonene rundt den…eh…rundt Gulfen, har fått servert til regionens søte te. Det er det gamle hatet mellom persere og arabere, mellom sunnier og shiaer som kommer til syne. Mange drar kanskje på smilebåndene av slike kommentarer, men her er det altså selveste Habtoor, en legende i Emiratene, som kommer med den. Og han har mer krutt på lager. Her med mine uthevelser:

Tehran later urged Iraqi Shiites not to resist the 2003 US-led occupation of Iraq for good reason. Iraq was defanged and is now ruled by pro-Iranian politicians. Bush spent billions and sacrificed lives only to deliver Iraq to Iran. Tehran has since made efforts to woo Washington to get anti-Iranian sanctions lifted although they do not heavily impact the Iranian economy like those that crippled Iraq — indicating the West isn’t serious about disciplining Iran.

It’s curious, too, that Washington has been flexing its muscles over Iran’s uranium enrichment programme since 2006, but has refrained from packing a punch in the way Saddam was punished for his non-existent WMD. In recent decades, Iran has hardened its grip on Lebanon and expanded its influence to Syria, Iraq and Yemen as well as to Shiite minorities in the Gulf. Prior to the Arab Spring veteran leaders kept a lid on Tehran’s ambitions. The toppling of strong Arab leaderships invites sectarian conflict, extremist organisations — and civil war. Such divisions under the banner of ‘freedom’ serve Iran. The new Egypt has permitted Iranian warships through Suez and is normalising diplomatic relations with Tehran despite GCC reservations.

While the US is supportive of revolutionaries in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Syria and Libya, its condemnation of Iran’s repression has been lukewarm. Could the ‘enmity’ between Iran and the US/Israel be an elaborate act? If Tehran has covertly cooperated with its enemies in the past, that may be occurring now.

Keeping up the pretence of enmity is a win-win situation for all concerned. Israel has a pretext to propagandise its security needs in the face of an Iranian existential threat. Iran uses anti-Israel slogans to increase its standing among Muslims. And the US has an excuse to maintain its military footprint in the Gulf. What if, in the future, Washington, Tel Aviv formed an alliance similar to the one that existed at the time of the Shah? How would that impact the independence of Gulf States? It may be that scenario is in preparation which would explain the West’s softly-softly approach on Iran.

Nå er ikke konspirasjonsideer noe nytt i denne delen av verden, ei heller er Al-Habtoor noen statsleder, men hans økonomiske tyngde og hans posisjon som gammel venn av Dubais landsfader, Sheikh Rashid, tilsier at hans råd kanskje burde noteres, også her hjemme.

I would urge GCC states to increase their military might and unify to defend against threats to our land and dignity. In a climate where major powers are dumping close allies to suit their interests we cannot rely on others’ protection. We’re on our own — the sooner we start taking care of ourselves the better.

Etter at India sist uke valgte vekk amerikanske jagerfly til fordel for enten franske Rafael eller Eurofighter, og etter at luftkrigseksperter ikke har latt seg imponere av NATOs luftkrigsinnsats i Libya (norske medier ikke medregnet), blir det store spørsmålet for amerikanerne om også GCC-landene ser mot Europa når de skal ut å handle mer. For penger har de fortsatt, akkurat som Norge, men her diskuteres ikke slikt.

Red.: dette er en artikkel som av uforklarlige grunner er blitt liggende, men som likevel er relevant.