Boligprisene i Spania har hittil falt 25 prosent, men spådommene sier spanierne må forberede seg på et fall på 60 prosent. Det er et verditap uten sidestykke.
Den samlede boliggjelden i Spania er på ufattelige 5250 milliarder kroner. Folk klarer ikke betjene gjelden etter hvert som de rammes av krisen. Det er bare et tidsspørsmål før banker vil gå over ende, og hverken staten eller EU har penger nok til å redde Spania.
With a rising portion of Spain’s 663 billion euros, or $876 billion, in home mortgages at risk of default, many economists say it is only a matter of time before some of Spain’s biggest banks will need a bailout. And the Spanish government, staggering under its own debt and budget deficit burdens, may not have the money to come to the rescue.
Hellas har fått 110 milliarder euro. Spania ville trenge minst det dobbelte.
The big fear is that the European Union will need to step in with a Spanish bailout — one much bigger than any of those already extended to Ireland, Greece and Portugal.
“Retail mortgages are set to become the Achilles’ heel of the Spanish banking system,” said Edward Hugh, a Barcelona-based economist and blogger who has closely studied the issue.
Med en offisiell arbeidsledighet på 25 prosent og en ungdomsledighet på over 50 % sier det seg selv at et økende antall låntakere ikke greier å overholde gjeldsforpliktelsene. De misligholder eller slutter å nedbetale.
Last week, the Spanish central bank reported that the nation’s nonperforming loans had hit the highest level since 1994. And while the government’s official estimate of mortgages going unpaid is only 3 percent, Mr. Hugh and other economists say the actual numbers are probably much higher — in double digits for some lenders.
Dette rammer mange hardt. New York Times har snakket med en kvinne som sitter igjen med 350.000 euro i lån for et byggeprosjekt der entreprenøren gikk konkurs. Hun vil gjerne selge eiendommen tilbake til banken. Mannen hun kjøpte huset med har reist tilbake til Bra<sil og giftet seg. Selv flytter kvinnen inn med sin mor. Slik faller økonomien privat som et korthus og forplanter seg til stat og næringsliv.
Real estate experts in Spain estimated that about 300,000 properties have been repossessed since the onset of the financial crisis in 2007. Unwilling to take losses, banks have mainly held onto these homes. But now, facing pressure to raise more capital, banks are rushing to unload them, offering discounts of up to 60 percent.
60 prosent rabatt sier noe om hvor store nedskrivninger private må regne med. De flest vil da sitte med negativ egenkapital.
I tillegg ble huslån solgt videre i investeringspakker til investorer. I USA het det subprime lån, dvs. det var lån gitt til kunder som ellers ikke ville fått lån. I Spania var det kredittverdige kunder i utgangspunktet som nå er blitt subprime, dvs. ikke i stand til å betale.
Bankene som har solgt disse pakkene har nå investorene på nakken, og forsøker å holde dem stangen, blant annet ved å kjøpe pakkene tilbake mot et avslag på fra 10 til 30 prosent.
Fremtidsscenariet blir uansett negativt, og frykten sprer seg.
På et eller annet tidspunkt vil banker begynne å gå over ende.
Investors are anxiously monitoring the Web site of a Spanish association of fund managers who deal in the mortgage securities. In some cases, up to 14 percent of the assets in certain mortgage pools are more than 90 days overdue.
“It’s really scary,” said an investment banker who buys and sells the securities but who was not authorized by his bank to discuss them publicly. “Every quarter the numbers get worse.”
According to the association’s Web site, among the worst performing mortgage securities in investment funds are the ones backed by Bankia, which is now Spain’s largest provider of home loans. Bankia said it does not comment on the performance of such funds.
Until recently, banks had been buying back, at full price, some of the worst performing mortgage securities in order to protect the mostly foreign investors that hold them, in hopes of preserving the banks’ investment standing. But as more loans default and capital becomes even more scarce, some banks are now facing up to the inevitable and are offering to buy back these securities at discounts of 10 to 30 percent.
Borja Mateo, author of a recent book on the Spanish real estate market, said there were now 1.9 million housing units for sale in Spain and about 3.9 million that could go on to the market in the coming years. With current housing demand now at about 175,000 units a year, Mr. Mateo predicted the glut would cause home prices eventually to fall by 60 percent.
Because the typical Spaniard has 80 percent of his or her assets tied up in real estate, a plunge in prices of this magnitude would be devastating. “What we are seeing,” he said, “is a massive impoverishment of a country.”