Afghanistan og India har inngått en avtale om at India skal trene 25.000 offiserer den afghanske hæren.
India vil dermed fylle noe av sikkerhetsvakuumet som oppstår når ISAF trekker seg ut.
Avtalen er et marerittscenario for Pakistan, og vil bli oppfattet som en fiendtlig handling.
Den har USAs velsignelse, hvilket av Pakistan vil bli oppfattet som en bekreftelse på at USA er en fiende. En må anta at Pakistan vil opptre tilsvarende. Men hvem vil være taperen hvis Pakistan står frem som en sabotør av Afghanistans fremtid?
Under the agreement, India, which has the world’s third-largest army, agreed to train, equip and build the capacity of the Afghan forces.
Sources in the Indian security establishment familiar with the contours of the detailed schedule say Kabul and New Delhi have identified three areas to focus on, namely increasing the intake of officers in India’s premier training institutes; providing specialized training to middle and higher level officers already operating in the Afghan National Army (ANA); and training soldiers in counter-insurgency and counter-terrorist operations by seconding them to various regimental centers across India.
This will involve…bringing to India more than 25,000 ANA officers and men over the next three years.
Pakistan boikottet konferansen om Afghanistans fremtid i Bonn, hvor 75 land deltok. Spørsmålet er om ikke Pakistan er ved å parkere seg selv.
Hvis USA må velge mellom India og Pakistan gir resultatet seg selv.
But in all seriousness, India is of course far better equipped to train the Afghan Army than Pakistan is. India has a large military, advanced training facilities (some have played host to American officers), the capacity to train large numbers of Afghan forces simultaneously, much better domestic security than Pakistan, and has offered to provide Afghan forces with equipment and technology.
Importantly, India has also been training Afghan intelligence officers.
This strikes us as just about the worst scenario for Pakistan’s paranoid leadership. All along they have resisted an Afghan-Indian alliance. What will they do when that relationship becomes more concrete in the future?
Be very, very sure that the Pakistani defense establishment looks at these developments and America’s apparent acceptance of them as the deeds that define US attitudes toward Pakistan. From their point of view, it is the moral equivalent of a declaration of war and they reserve the right to act in response.
From the Pakistani point of view, the United States is an enemy, not an ally, and America’s plans for postwar Afghanistan are to be frustrated, not helped.
Expect nothing more and nothing less.
Avtalen er også en påminnelse om at den defaitisme som preger norske forskere og journalister i synet på Afghanistan, sier mer om en spesiell norsk debatt enn det sier om den virkelige verden. Man befinner seg inni en boble, som har visse fellestrekk med pakistanske holdninger.
