FN: Folkevandringer uten sidestykke

Hans Rustad

europa-demos.gif

Frem mot år 2050 vil ver­den opp­leve folke­vand­rin­ger uten side­stykke. Den demo­gra­fiske stagnasjon/tilbakegang i Europa, vil bli kom­pen­sert ved inn­vand­ring. Hvert år vil 2,3 mil­lio­ner men­nes­ker inn­vandre til Europa. Til dels fra land med enorm vekst: Pakis­tan vil ha 292 mil­lio­ner men­nes­ker i 2050.

Tal­le­nes tale er slik at det tar tid å fatte dem. Ver­dens befolk­ning vil stige med 2,3 mil­li­ar­der men­nes­ker, like mye som tota­len i 1950. Hvor­dan skal 292 mil­lio­ner men­nes­ker kunne liv­nære seg i Pakis­tan, som har enorme pro­ble­mer med 167 mil­lio­ner? Kina opp­le­ver en vekst som truer sta­bi­li­te­ten i økono­mien. Men selv 10 % vekst er ikke nok til å ta unna for fluk­ten fra lands­bygda. Nå har Kina fått kon­troll på sin befolk­nings­vekst, men India fort­set­ter å vokse og vil ha 1,7 mil­li­ar­der ved 2050.

At least 2.2 mil­lion migrants will arrive in the rich world every year from now until 2050, the Uni­ted Nations said yester­day.
Britain’s popu­la­tion will rise from 60 mil­lion to approa­ching 69 mil­lion by 2050 - almost entirely because of immigration.

The latest figu­res from the UN’s popu­la­tion divi­sion pre­dict a glo­bal uphea­val wit­hout paral­lel in human his­tory over the next four decades.

There will be bil­lions more people in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. Of these, tens of mil­lions will migrate to Europe and Ame­rica, while the indi­genous popu­la­tions of most countries in the rich world will eit­her stag­nate or decline.

In total, the world’s popu­la­tion will grow by 2.5 bil­lion and reach about 9.2 bil­lion by 2050.

This increase - almost all of which will occur in Africa, Asia and the Middle East - is the equi­va­lent of the glo­bal popu­la­tion in 1950.

While some countries will grow expo­nenti­ally, others will shrink dramatically.

The UN pre­dicts the ste­ady depo­pu­la­tion of vast areas of eas­tern Europe and the for­mer Com­mu­nist world, as a result of high levels of emi­gra­tion and birth rates run­ning per­sis­tently below replace­ment levels.

Bulgaria’s popu­la­tion will fall by 35 per cent by 2050. Ukraine’s will plum­met by 33 per cent, Russia’s by one quar­ter and Poland’s by one fifth. There will be 10 per cent fewer Ger­mans and seven per cent fewer Italians.

But the flow of migrants across bor­ders will dra­ma­ti­cally increase the popu­la­tions of other devel­o­ped countries.

The popu­la­tion of the more devel­o­ped regions is expec­ted to remain largely unchanged at 1.2 bil­lion, and would have declined, were it not for the pro­jected net migra­tion from devel­o­ping to devel­o­ped countries,” said the UN.

The level of sustai­ned, mass migra­tion across bor­ders that the world will expe­ri­ence over the next four deca­des is unprecedented.

Between 1970 and 1980, the rich world took about one mil­lion migrants a year from poor countries. During the next 43 years, immi­gra­tion will run at more than twice that level and approach 2.3 mil­lion every year from now until 2050.

Of these migrants, some 400,000 will leave Africa every year and about 1.2 mil­lion will emi­grate from Asia. The gap in wealth and opport­u­nity between the rich and poor worlds will be the most sig­ni­fi­cant “pull factor” behind this change. But the pres­sure exerted by rap­idly rising popu­la­tions in devel­o­ping countries will also be an impor­tant under­ly­ing cause.

By 2050, India will have the hig­hest popu­la­tion in the world, total­ling almost 1.7 bil­lion people. There will be 292 mil­lion Pakis­ta­nis, giving their coun­try the fifth big­gest popu­la­tion. Nige­ria will have 289 mil­lion people - making it the world’s sixth most popu­lous coun­try - and Uganda’s popu­la­tion will rise to 93 mil­lion, com­for­tably exce­e­ding the totals in both its lar­ger neigh­bours, Kenya and Tanzania.

This mas­sive popu­la­tion growth will lead to land degra­da­tion on a huge scale and place an immense strain on the limi­ted water resources of poor countries. Malawi can­not feed its pre­sent popu­la­tion of 13 mil­lion - and every year its soils become more degra­ded and yields ste­ad­ily fewer crops.

By 2050, the UN forecasts that it will have almost 32 mil­lion people - more than twice as many as today. Popu­la­tion growth on this scale will almost cer­tainly leave Malawi per­ma­nently depen­dent on inter­na­tio­nal food aid to keep mil­lions of its people alive.

The UN’s popu­la­tion pre­dic­tions have proved largely accu­rate in the past. While the mar­gin of error for these figu­res runs into the mil­lions, the broad trends they dis­close are undisputed.

UN pre­dicts huge migra­tion to rich countries




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